Storing seeds in vaults like Svalbard is a flawed backup plan because they are not adapting to new diseases and a changing climate. True resilience comes from cultivating diverse crops in the field, allowing them to co-evolve with threats and develop natural resistance.
While a major contributor to emissions, the agricultural industry is also more vulnerable to climate change impacts than almost any other sector. This dual role as both primary cause and primary victim creates a powerful, intrinsic motivation to innovate and transition from a "climate sinner to saint," a dynamic not present in all industries.
The debate over food's future is often a binary battle between tech-driven "reinvention" (CRISPR, AI) and a return to traditional, organic "de-invention." The optimal path is a synthesis of the two, merging the wisdom of ancient farming practices with the most advanced science to increase yields sustainably without degrading the environment.
Adaptable organizations are built on curiosity. This is nurtured not by formal courses, but by leaders encouraging small, daily acts of connecting disparate ideas (e.g., "What did you see this weekend and how can we apply it?"). This builds the collective "mental muscle" for navigating disruption.
While often romanticized, a widespread shift to pre-industrial, low-yield organic farming would be a climate disaster. The core environmental problem of agriculture is land conversion. Since organic methods typically produce 20-40% less food per acre, they would necessitate converting massive amounts of forests and wildlands into farmland, releasing vast carbon stores.
The way we grow food is a primary driver of climate change, independent of the energy sector. Even if we completely decarbonize energy, our agricultural practices, particularly land use and deforestation, are sufficient to push the planet past critical warming thresholds. This makes fixing the food system an urgent, non-negotiable climate priority.
The traditional method of engineering enzymes by making precise, knowledge-based changes (“rational design”) is largely ineffective. Publication bias hides the vast number of failures, creating a false impression of success while cruder, high-volume methods like directed evolution prove superior.
Despite shelves stocked with heirloom tomatoes and exotic grains, our core food supply is dangerously uniform. For example, 90% of U.S. milk comes from a single cow breed descended from just two bulls, and half of all calories consumed globally come from just three grasses.
The Bushmen people of the Kalahari never stored food because they viewed the desert itself as their ever-present storehouse. This demonstrates a profound abundance mindset, trusting that the environment will always provide, which contrasts sharply with the modern hoarding and scarcity mentality.
Unlike wildlife conservation, which prioritizes non-interference, preserving agrobiodiversity requires consumption. Reviving, cultivating, and herding ancestral grains and livestock creates a market and an economic incentive for their survival, following the principle: "to save it, you've got to eat it."
Afeyan proposes that AI's emergence forces us to broaden our definition of intelligence beyond humans. By viewing nature—from cells to ecosystems—as intelligent systems capable of adaptation and anticipation, we can move beyond reductionist biology to unlock profound new understandings of disease.