The 2026 midterm elections are unlikely to cause significant policy shifts due to probable gridlock. Their real value for investors is in providing 'soft signals' about evolving voter preferences that could foreshadow major policy directions after the 2028 general election, creating opportunities if the market misinterprets them.

Politicians often strategize about balancing a ticket demographically (e.g., race, gender, sexuality), but this misses the point. Voters ultimately support candidates with whom they feel a values-based connection. A ticket can overcome perceived demographic liabilities if it projects values that resonate with the majority.

The MAGA movement is fracturing in real-time as key figures openly challenge Trump. This indicates the succession battle has already begun, driven by policy disagreements, influencer dynamics, and conspiracy theories, shifting the movement from a monolithic base to a multi-polar power struggle.

A key driver of Trump's electoral shift was a coalition of two groups: young men under 30 and women aged 45-64. The thesis is that mothers, seeing their sons struggling economically and socially, voted for radical change out of desperation. For them, a system shake-up was more important than specific policies on issues like Ukraine or abortion rights.

A deep distrust of the bipartisan "neoliberal consensus" has made many young people receptive to any counter-narrative, whether from the left or right. This creates a powerful anti-establishment bloc that finds common ground in opposing the status quo, explaining the crossover appeal of populist figures.

The political coalition of working-class voters and the tech/VC industry could shatter over AI. A plausible 2028 scenario involves a Republican primary lane dedicated to an anti-AI platform, framing it as a job-killer and electricity-price booster, creating a significant division within the party.

The conventional wisdom that moderate candidates are more electable is a myth. Elections are won by turnout, not by appealing to the median voter. A polarizing figure who excites their base will often win by a larger margin than a moderate who fails to generate enthusiasm.

Political alignment is becoming secondary to economic frustration. Voters are responding to candidates who address rising costs, creating unpredictable alliances and fracturing established bases. This dynamic is swamping traditional ideology, forcing both parties to scramble for a new populist message centered on financial well-being.

The success of figures like Trump and Mamdani shows a political shift where personality trumps policy. Voters are drawn to authentic, entertainer-like candidates who connect on a human level, making traditional, unrelatable politicians obsolete.