The conventional wisdom that moderate candidates are more electable is a myth. Elections are won by turnout, not by appealing to the median voter. A polarizing figure who excites their base will often win by a larger margin than a moderate who fails to generate enthusiasm.

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Modern populists gain influence by creating organic content that captures algorithmic attention, effectively turning a small campaign budget into disproportionate reach. This bottom-up strategy bypasses traditional, money-driven political machines by treating social attention as the primary currency, not dollars.

The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.

Instead of incremental shifts around a moderate center (e.g., between 4 and 6 on a dial), US policy now swings violently between ideological extremes (3 and 9). This dynamic makes stable, consensus-based governance on issues like immigration nearly impossible.

A savvy political strategy involves forcing opponents to publicly address the most extreme statements from their ideological allies. This creates an impossible purity test. No answer is good enough for the fringe, and any attempt to placate them alienates the mainstream, effectively creating a schism that benefits the opposing party.

Centrist policies don't have to be boring. By framing sensible, evidence-based ideas as "radical," moderates can capture public imagination and compete with the loud fringes of the political spectrum, making effective governance more appealing and electorally viable.

In politics, the perception of strength and decisiveness can be more electorally powerful than being correct but appearing weak or compromising. This principle explains why a political party might maintain a hardline stance that is unpopular, as the image of strength itself resonates more with voters than the nuance of being “right.”

Political alignment is becoming secondary to economic frustration. Voters are responding to candidates who address rising costs, creating unpredictable alliances and fracturing established bases. This dynamic is swamping traditional ideology, forcing both parties to scramble for a new populist message centered on financial well-being.

The success of figures like Trump and Mamdani shows a political shift where personality trumps policy. Voters are drawn to authentic, entertainer-like candidates who connect on a human level, making traditional, unrelatable politicians obsolete.

In times of economic inequality, people are psychologically driven to vote for policies that punish a perceived enemy—like the wealthy or immigrants—rather than those that directly aid the poor. This powerful emotional desire for anger and a villain fuels populist leaders.

A key demographic shift towards Trump was 45-64 year old women. The theory posits these mothers, seeing their sons struggling, voted for radical change, prioritizing their sons' futures over issues like Ukraine or abortion rights.

Polarizing Candidates Win More Decisively Than Moderates by Driving Voter Turnout | RiffOn