Historically, Russia and China's strategy as continental empires involves avoiding two-front wars and actively destabilizing neighboring states. This creates buffer zones and prevents any single power from becoming a threat on their borders, ensuring their own security through regional instability.

Historically, rising and ruling powers don't stumble into war directly. Instead, their heightened distrust creates a tinderbox where a seemingly minor incident involving a third party (like the assassination in Sarajevo pre-WWI) can escalate uncontrollably into a catastrophic conflict.

The Romans empowered Massinissa, a Numidian king and their ally, to continuously encroach on Carthaginian territory. This strategy of using a proxy ally kept Carthage weak and created constant border disputes, providing Rome with an eventual pretext for war.

The US decision to sell its most advanced fighter jets to Saudi Arabia marks a significant shift in regional military dynamics. This move worries Israel, which relies on its technological military edge to maintain its status as a regional power, signaling a potential realignment of power in the Middle East.

Soviet leaders who lived through WWII understood the unpredictability of direct conflict and preferred proxy wars. Vladimir Putin, in contrast, has consistently used direct "hot wars"—from Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine—as a primary tool to consolidate power and boost his domestic popularity.

An obsessive focus on internal political battles creates a critical geopolitical vulnerability. While a nation tears itself apart with divisive rhetoric, strategic adversaries like China benefit from the distraction and internal weakening. This domestic infighting accelerates the erosion of the nation's global influence and power.

In times of extreme polarization, the political middle is not a safe haven but a kill zone. Moderates are targeted by both sides because they have no tribe to defend them. The escalating cost of neutrality forces everyone to pick a side, eliminating compromise and accelerating conflict.

The current Iranian protests are uniquely potent because the regime is at its weakest geopolitically. The loss of regional proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, coupled with key ally Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine, has left the Iranian government more isolated and vulnerable than during any previous wave of unrest.

Regional stability is an economic necessity for oil-rich nations. Peace allows them to accelerate monetization of their finite oil reserves and reinvest the capital into diversified, future-proof economies like AI and tourism before alternative energy devalues their primary asset.