Once Chinese intervention in the Korean War created a stalemate, Stalin saw the conflict as a perfect opportunity. He believed it would drain American resources and delay China's rise, all while keeping Russia out of direct conflict—a low-risk, high-reward strategy of "fighting to the last Chinese."

The dynamic between a rising power (China) and a ruling one (the U.S.) fits the historical pattern of the "Thucydides' trap." In 12 of the last 16 instances of this scenario, the confrontation has ended in open war, suggesting that a peaceful resolution is the exception, not the rule.

China's showcase of advanced military hardware, like its new aircraft carrier, is primarily a psychological tool. The strategy is to build a military so 'forbiddingly huge' that the US would hesitate to engage, allowing China to achieve goals like reabsorbing Taiwan without fighting. This suggests their focus is on perceived power to deter intervention.

Both nations use nationalism to rally support and distract from domestic failings. But this approach is a "heady drink" with severe downsides: it repels internal minorities, pushes neighbors to form counter-alliances, and makes it politically difficult to de-escalate international crises.

The core national anxieties of Russia and China are opposites, shaping their strategic cultures. Russia's history of devastating invasions fuels its fear of external threats (the "Mongol yoke"). China, haunted by centuries of civil war, fears internal chaos and the collapse of the state above all else.

China's foreign policy is shaped by its 5,000-year history as a land-based, agricultural civilization, rather than a maritime or expansionist one. This cultural foundation, valuing cultivation of one's own land over foreign conquest, is presented as the reason China has not started wars or colonized other nations in modern history.

Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, Russia consistently manipulated China during its moments of weakness. It offered "mediation" in conflicts like the Opium Wars that ultimately served Russian interests by keeping China destabilized and forcing it to cede territory.

Soviet leaders who lived through WWII understood the unpredictability of direct conflict and preferred proxy wars. Vladimir Putin, in contrast, has consistently used direct "hot wars"—from Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine—as a primary tool to consolidate power and boost his domestic popularity.

An obsessive focus on internal political battles creates a critical geopolitical vulnerability. While a nation tears itself apart with divisive rhetoric, strategic adversaries like China benefit from the distraction and internal weakening. This domestic infighting accelerates the erosion of the nation's global influence and power.