With information now ubiquitous, the primary source of market inefficiency is no longer informational but behavioral. The most durable edge is "time arbitrage"—exploiting the market's obsession with short-term results by focusing on a business's normalized potential over a two-to-four-year horizon.

Offering daily liquidity while pursuing a multi-year investment strategy creates a dangerous duration mismatch. When investors inevitably demand their cash during a downturn, the long-term thesis is shattered, forcing fire sales and destroying value. A fund's liquidity terms must align with its investment horizon.

Private equity and venture capital funds create an illusion of stability by avoiding daily mark-to-market pricing. This "laundering of volatility" is a core reason companies stay private longer. It reveals a key, if artificial, benefit of private markets that new technologies like tokenization could disrupt.

Contrary to popular belief, the market may be getting less efficient. The dominance of indexing, quant funds, and multi-manager pods—all with short time horizons—creates dislocations. This leaves opportunities for long-term investors to buy valuable assets that are neglected because their path to value creation is uncertain.

The traditional IPO exit is being replaced by a perpetual secondary market for elite private companies. This new paradigm provides liquidity for investors and employees without the high costs and regulatory burdens of going public. This shift fundamentally alters the venture capital lifecycle, enabling longer private holding periods.

When private equity firms begin marketing to retail investors, it's less about sharing wealth and more a sign of distress. This pivot often occurs when institutional backers demand returns and raising new capital becomes difficult, forcing firms to tap the public for liquidity.

Private equity's low reported correlation with public markets is largely an illusion created by smoothed, infrequent valuations ("volatility laundering"). The effect is exaggerated when institutions report private asset returns with a one-quarter lag, creating "accounting diversification" instead of real risk reduction.

The US retirement system is built on a chassis of daily liquidity and pricing. While some hope the system might adapt to the monthly or quarterly nature of alternatives, the more likely outcome is that private market managers will be forced to develop reliable daily NAV calculations to gain access.

The venture capital paradigm has inverted. Historically, private companies traded at an "illiquidity discount" to their public counterparts. Now, for elite companies, there is an "access premium" where investors pay more for private shares due to scarcity and hype. This makes staying private longer more attractive.