Contrary to its goals, the U.S. trade war has resulted in self-isolation. Data shows the U.S. is the only country buying less from China, while U.S. allies and developing nations have increased their trade, leading to a record $1 trillion surplus for China. This highlights a strategic miscalculation in U.S. foreign trade policy.

While the US exports less to Canada by volume, its exports (electronics, pharma) have far higher margins and shareholder value multiples than Canadian exports (lumber, oil). Therefore, for every dollar of trade disrupted by tariffs, the US loses significantly more economic value, making the policy self-defeating.

Canada's long-term economic strategy is built on the belief that the era of increasing integration with the US is permanently over. The leadership anticipates that future American politicians will find it difficult to remove trade barriers, necessitating a fundamental, long-term pivot for Canada's economy away from US dependency.

Because U.S. tariff levels are likely to remain stable regardless of legal challenges, the more critical factor for the long-term outlook is how companies adapt. Investors should focus on corporate responses in capital spending and supply chain adjustments rather than the tariff levels themselves.

Unlike previous administrations that used trade policy for domestic economic goals, Trump's approach is distinguished by his willingness to wield tariffs as a broad geopolitical weapon against allies and adversaries alike, from Canada to India.

When trade policies force allies like Canada to find new partners, it's not a temporary shift. They build new infrastructure and relationships that won't be abandoned even if the political climate changes. The trust is broken, making the economic damage long-lasting and difficult to repair.

Facing significant US tariffs and global trade headwinds, India is pivoting inward. The government is implementing a three-pronged stimulus—cutting household taxes, central bank interest rates, and consumption taxes—to boost domestic demand and insulate its economy from external shocks.

Tariffs are creating a stagflationary effect on the economy. This is visible in PMI data, which shows muted business activity while the "prices paid" component remains high. This combination of slowing growth and rising costs acts as a significant "speed break" on the economy without stopping it entirely.

Contrary to popular belief, Trump's trade strategy isn't protectionism. He uses reciprocity, leverage, and executive flexibility to force other countries to lower their own trade barriers, ultimately aiming for a world with freer trade for the U.S.