While the US exports less to Canada by volume, its exports (electronics, pharma) have far higher margins and shareholder value multiples than Canadian exports (lumber, oil). Therefore, for every dollar of trade disrupted by tariffs, the US loses significantly more economic value, making the policy self-defeating.
Related Insights
The absence of Home Depot's popular giant Santa decoration is not a simple inventory issue but a direct result of the US-China trade war. This illustrates how high-level geopolitics creates specific product shortages and fuels high-markup secondary markets on platforms like eBay.
Contrary to its goals, the U.S. trade war has resulted in self-isolation. Data shows the U.S. is the only country buying less from China, while U.S. allies and developing nations have increased their trade, leading to a record $1 trillion surplus for China. This highlights a strategic miscalculation in U.S. foreign trade policy.
In a world of aging, export-dependent economies like China and Korea, the U.S. is the only large, first-world nation that is a net consumer. This makes access to its market an incredibly powerful negotiating tactic, allowing the U.S. to leverage its consumer base as a tool of foreign policy.
The proposal to levy tariffs and then issue rebate checks is economically nonsensical. It creates massive bureaucratic leakage, making it more efficient to simply not have the tariffs. Furthermore, the policy uncertainty paralyzes businesses, creating non-economic costs that are more damaging than the direct financial impact of the tariffs.
While large firms like NVIDIA can onshore manufacturing, small hardware startups relying on Chinese production are the primary casualties of tariffs. They lack the scale to move supply chains or secure exemptions, eroding their margins and weakening their negotiating position with investors.
When trade policies force allies like Canada to find new partners, it's not a temporary shift. They build new infrastructure and relationships that won't be abandoned even if the political climate changes. The trust is broken, making the economic damage long-lasting and difficult to repair.
Geopolitical shifts mean a company's country of origin heavily influences its market access and tariff burdens. This "corporate nationality" creates an uneven playing field, where a business's location can instantly become a massive advantage or liability compared to competitors.
Despite what is described as "stupid" and "sclerotic" economic policies like tariffs and trade wars, the U.S. economy continues to grow. This resilience is not due to government strategy but to the relentless daily innovation of American businesses, which succeed in spite of, not because of, macro-level decisions.
US policy fetishizes a return to manufacturing, which employs 11% of the workforce. However, protectionist policies like tariffs actively harm the higher-margin, larger tourism industry, which employs 12%. This represents a sclerotic and irrational trade-off that damages a more valuable sector of the economy.
While the U.S. oscillates between trade policies with each new administration, China executes consistent long-term plans, like shifting to high-quality exports. This decisiveness has enabled China to find new global markets and achieve a record trade surplus, effectively outmaneuvering U.S. tactics.