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The commodities market relies on a secretive team of professional coffee tasters with a 5% exam pass rate to ensure quality. This human-led, highly selective process is a critical, yet hidden, layer of quality control for a multi-billion dollar industry.
Commodity trading is an ideal but underutilized area for AI. The field is rich with unstructured micro-data—from individual warehouse invoices to real-time shipping costs—that is difficult for humans to process. AI can synthesize this information to uncover complex patterns and arbitrage opportunities.
To land their first account, the founders walked into the kitchen of the nation's #1 restaurant, uninvited, and prepared their coffee directly for the demanding chef. The product's quality spoke for itself, securing the deal on the spot and creating immediate industry buzz.
Despite having computer grading technology for decades that is far more precise than humans, the collectibles industry has rejected it. Collectors behave like gamblers, preferring the subjective nature of human grading and the chance to "win" a higher grade by resubmitting an item.
With 60% of Harvard grades being A's, the university is considering a cap. This situation demonstrates a core economic principle: scarcity creates value. When an accolade or reward becomes too common, it ceases to be a meaningful signal of exceptional performance, making lesser-achieved outcomes (like a 'B') potentially more impressive.
Coffee expert Max Levchin claims the common wisdom about old beans being useless is false. A skilled barista can adjust their technique to pull a great-tasting espresso shot from "very sus beans," proving that process and skill can often overcome raw material imperfections.
In a group of 100 experts training an AI, the top 10% will often drive the majority of the model's improvement. This creates a power law dynamic where the ability to source and identify this elite talent becomes a key competitive moat for AI labs and data providers.
Instead of mass-market appeal, La Colombe focused on becoming the coffee supplier for the world's best restaurants. They believed that if they could win over the most discerning palates, their reputation for quality would cascade down to the general public, creating an unassailable brand.
When entering the market, La Colombe's wholesale price was over five times the standard rate. They overcame price objections from chefs by reframing coffee not as a commodity beverage, but as a high-quality "spice," an essential ingredient where quality dictates the price.
Economist Tyler Cowen predicts that as AI makes information ubiquitous and cover letters perfect, value will shift to non-public knowledge, or "secrets." Confidential insights on how networks operate and decisions are made, shared through human relationships, will become critical. A trusted human who can vouch for you will be more important than ever.
Life is full of 'hidden markets' for scarce resources like school admissions or popular reservations. These don't use price but have specific rules like lotteries, queues, or preference rankings. Understanding and mastering these non-obvious rules, as Wharton economist Judd Kessler explains, is key to getting what you want.