Simply offering the latest model is no longer a competitive advantage. True value is created in the system built around the model—the system prompts, tools, and overall scaffolding. This 'harness' is what optimizes a model's performance for specific tasks and delivers a superior user experience.

A fundamental shift is occurring where startups allocate limited budgets toward specialized AI models and developer tools, rather than defaulting to AWS for all infrastructure. This signals a de-bundling of the traditional cloud stack and a change in platform priorities.

The current focus on building massive, centralized AI training clusters represents the 'mainframe' era of AI. The next three years will see a shift toward a distributed model, similar to computing's move from mainframes to PCs. This involves pushing smaller, efficient inference models out to a wide array of devices.

Enterprises will shift from relying on a single large language model to using orchestration platforms. These platforms will allow them to 'hot swap' various models—including smaller, specialized ones—for different tasks within a single system, optimizing for performance, cost, and use case without being locked into one provider.

Point-solution SaaS products are at a massive disadvantage in the age of AI because they lack the broad, integrated dataset needed to power effective features. Bundled platforms that 'own the mine' of data are best positioned to win, as AI can perform magic when it has access to a rich, semantic data layer.

The initial AI rush for every company to build proprietary models is over. The new winning strategy, seen with firms like Adobe, is to leverage existing product distribution by integrating multiple best-in-class third-party models, enabling faster and more powerful user experiences.

The pace of AI model improvement is faster than the ability to ship specific tools. By creating lower-level, generalizable tools, developers build a system that automatically becomes more powerful and adaptable as the underlying AI gets smarter, without requiring re-engineering.

The cloud era created a fragmented landscape of single-purpose SaaS tools, leading to enterprise fatigue. AI enables unified platforms to perform these specialized tasks, creating a massive consolidation wave and disrupting the niche application market.

Judging an AI's capability by its base model alone is misleading. Its effectiveness is significantly amplified by surrounding tooling and frameworks, like developer environments. A good tool harness can make a decent model outperform a superior model that lacks such support.