AI agents are rapidly transforming software development and knowledge work, but their impact on professions requiring physical robotics, like surgery or auto repair, is on a much longer timeline. The AI revolution is arriving in phases, with the digital world being upended first and the physical world to follow later.

Despite technologies like Zillow seemingly making them obsolete, real estate brokers have remained resilient due to market inertia and regulatory capture. This serves as a powerful counter-example to predictions of rapid, friction-less AI-driven job displacement in other white-collar professions.

Despite the power of new AI agents, the primary barrier to adoption is human resistance to changing established workflows. People are comfortable with existing processes, even inefficient ones, making it incredibly difficult for even technologically superior systems to gain traction.

Large enterprises operate on complex webs of legacy systems, compliance controls, and fragile integrations. Their high risk aversion and lengthy change management cycles create a powerful inertia that will significantly delay the replacement of established B2B software, regardless of how capable AI agents become. Enterprise architecture moves slower than market hype.

Historically, technological advancements primarily displaced blue-collar workers first. The current AI revolution is unique because its most immediate and realized disruptions are targeting white-collar, knowledge-based roles, breaking a long-standing pattern of technological impact on the labor market.

Industries with fixed demand (accounting) will see job losses as AI handles the necessary workload. Sectors with expandable demand (software engineering) may absorb AI's productivity gains by creating vastly more output, thus preserving jobs for a longer period.

The widespread use of paper forms in healthcare and the persistence of billion-dollar fax and receipt industries signal that real-world AI penetration will be slow. If businesses haven't adopted basic digital tools, the leap to complex AI systems will likely take 20+ years, not a few.

Contrary to the popular narrative, AI is not yet a primary driver of white-collar layoffs. Instead of eliminating roles, it's changing the nature of work within them. For example, analysts now spend time on different, higher-value activities rather than manual tasks, suggesting a shift in job content rather than a reduction in headcount.

Unlike COVID, which universally and immediately affected everyone, AI's disruption is gradual and highly sector-specific. A surgeon's job isn't changing this month, but a software engineer's is. The comparison creates misplaced urgency for many outside of tech.