As America's global dominance wanes, power is bifurcating into two distinct successor empires. China is winning the physical world of manufacturing and military hardware. Simultaneously, the internet is winning the digital world of media (AI, social) and money (crypto, smart contracts). This succession has already occurred but has not been fully priced in by global markets.

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China's economic ascent began when Deng Xiaoping invited American experts to teach them about capitalism. This strategy, combined with becoming the world's manufacturing hub, allowed them to learn the system, grow strong quietly, and eventually become a dominant global power.

The US won World War II largely due to its unparalleled manufacturing capacity. Today, that strategic advantage has been ceded to China. In a potential conflict, the US would face an adversary that mirrors its own historical strength, creating a critical national security vulnerability.

Contrary to the narrative of a simple "tech race," the assessment is that China is already ahead in physical AI and supply chain capabilities. The expert warns that this gap is not only expected to last three to five years but may widen at an accelerating rate, posing a significant long-term competitive challenge for the U.S.

An emerging geopolitical threat is China weaponizing AI by flooding the market with cheap, efficient large language models (LLMs). This strategy, mirroring their historical dumping of steel, could collapse the pricing power of Western AI giants, disrupting the US economy's primary growth engine.

The US-China tech rivalry spans four arenas: creating technology, applying it, installing infrastructure, and self-sufficiency. While the U.S. excels at creating foundational tech like AI frameworks and semiconductors, China is leading in its practical application (e.g., robotics), installing digital infrastructure globally, and achieving resource independence.

The political landscape is not a simple left-right binary. It's a four-way conflict between distinct factions: the internet (tech), Blue America (media), Red America (manufacturing), and China. Each engages in specific clashes, like the 'tech clash' (internet vs. blue) or the 'trade war' (red vs. China), which better explains modern global tensions.

The U.S. government is actively promoting stablecoins and U.S.-based AI to extend its global influence. This strategy shifts from projecting power through military presence to technological and financial dominance, ensuring the dollar and American culture remain central to the global system.

While the West may lead in AI models, China's key strategic advantage is its ability to 'embody' AI in hardware. Decades of de-industrialization in the U.S. have left a gap, while China's manufacturing dominance allows it to integrate AI into cars, drones, and robots at a scale the West cannot currently match.

While the U.S. leads in closed, proprietary AI models like OpenAI's, Chinese companies now dominate the leaderboards for open-source models. Because they are cheaper and easier to deploy, these Chinese models are seeing rapid global uptake, challenging the U.S.'s perceived lead in AI through wider diffusion and application.

From 2001 onwards, while the U.S. was militarily and economically distracted by the War on Terror, China executed a long-term strategy. It focused on acquiring Western technology and building indigenous capabilities in AI, telecom, and robotics, effectively creating a rival global economic system.

The Successors to American Empire Are China in the Physical World and The Internet in the Digital World | RiffOn