The US-China tech rivalry spans four arenas: creating technology, applying it, installing infrastructure, and self-sufficiency. While the U.S. excels at creating foundational tech like AI frameworks and semiconductors, China is leading in its practical application (e.g., robotics), installing digital infrastructure globally, and achieving resource independence.
The US assumes its democratic values create a trust advantage. However, unpredictable actions, like threatening to cut off tech access to partners, undermine this trust and create an opening for China. China is exploiting this by positioning itself as a more reliable, if not more ideologically aligned, long-term supplier, especially in the Global South.
Taiwan's TSMC dominates advanced chip manufacturing not only through technical excellence but also its business model. By acting as a pure-play foundry that doesn't compete with its clients (unlike Intel or Samsung), it fostered unique trust and partnerships, making it the central hub of the semiconductor ecosystem and a critical geopolitical asset.
U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductors, intended to slow China, have instead galvanized its domestic industry. The restrictions accelerated China's existing push for self-sufficiency, forcing local companies to innovate with less advanced chips and develop their own GPU and manufacturing capabilities, diminishing the policy's long-term effectiveness.
While the U.S. leads in closed, proprietary AI models like OpenAI's, Chinese companies now dominate the leaderboards for open-source models. Because they are cheaper and easier to deploy, these Chinese models are seeing rapid global uptake, challenging the U.S.'s perceived lead in AI through wider diffusion and application.
While semiconductor access is a critical choke point, the long-term constraint on U.S. AI dominance is energy. Building massive data centers requires vast, stable power, but the U.S. faces supply chain issues for energy hardware and lacks a unified grid. China, in contrast, is strategically building out its energy infrastructure to support its AI ambitions.