The political landscape is not a simple left-right binary. It's a four-way conflict between distinct factions: the internet (tech), Blue America (media), Red America (manufacturing), and China. Each engages in specific clashes, like the 'tech clash' (internet vs. blue) or the 'trade war' (red vs. China), which better explains modern global tensions.
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The dynamic between tech and government is not a simple decline but a cycle of alignment (post-WWII), hostility (2000s-2010s), and a recent return to collaboration. This "back to the future" trend is driven by geopolitical needs and cultural shifts, suggesting the current alignment is a return to a historical norm.
China's promotion of open-weight models is a strategic maneuver to exert global influence. By controlling the underlying models that answer questions about history, borders, and values, a nation can shape global narratives and project soft power, much like Hollywood did for the U.S.
While a unipolar world led by one's own country is advantageous, a multipolar world with competing powers like the U.S. and China creates a dynamic tension. This competition may force more compromised global decisions, potentially leading to a more balanced, albeit more tense, international system than one dominated by a single unchallenged power.
After temporary alliances like 'Red and Tech vs. Blue', the next major political shift will unite the establishment left and right against the tech industry. Blues resent tech's capitalists, Reds resent its immigrants, and the political center blames it for societal ills. This will create a powerful, unified front aiming to curtail tech's influence and wealth.
As America's global dominance wanes, power is bifurcating into two distinct successor empires. China is winning the physical world of manufacturing and military hardware. Simultaneously, the internet is winning the digital world of media (AI, social) and money (crypto, smart contracts). This succession has already occurred but has not been fully priced in by global markets.
The US-China tech rivalry spans four arenas: creating technology, applying it, installing infrastructure, and self-sufficiency. While the U.S. excels at creating foundational tech like AI frameworks and semiconductors, China is leading in its practical application (e.g., robotics), installing digital infrastructure globally, and achieving resource independence.
A new populist coalition is emerging to counter Big Tech's influence, uniting politicians from opposite ends of the spectrum like Senator Ed Markey and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. This alliance successfully defeated an industry-backed provision to block state-level AI regulation, signaling a significant political realignment.
An obsessive focus on internal political battles creates a critical geopolitical vulnerability. While a nation tears itself apart with divisive rhetoric, strategic adversaries like China benefit from the distraction and internal weakening. This domestic infighting accelerates the erosion of the nation's global influence and power.
High-level US military and intelligence figures see independent online voices as a primary geopolitical threat. They fear that uncontrolled narratives can foster nationalism (like Brexit), which could lead to the dissolution of key alliances like the EU and NATO, disrupting the established world order.
Tech professionals are becoming a modern 'market-dominant minority'—an identifiable class that wins economically but is outnumbered democratically. Like historical parallels (e.g., Jews in Germany, Chinese in Southeast Asia), this status makes the industry a target for backlash from a frustrated majority, fueled by envy and political opportunism from both the left and right.