Entrepreneurship is defined by making decisions with incomplete information. Most choices should be directional, reasoned from first principles. Only irreversible, "one-way door" decisions justify delaying action for more data collection, as you will never have complete data.
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When facing ambiguity, the best strategy is not to wait for perfect information but to engage in "sense-making." This involves taking small, strategic actions, gathering data from them, and progressively building an understanding of the situation, rather than being paralyzed by analysis.
The best leaders act on incomplete information, understanding that 100% certainty is a myth that only exists in hindsight. The inability to decide amid ambiguity—choosing inaction—is a greater failure than making the wrong call.
Waiting for perfect data leads to paralysis. A core founder skill is making hard decisions with incomplete information. This 'founder gut' isn't innate; it's developed by studying the thought processes—not just the outcomes—of experienced entrepreneurs through masterminds, advisors, or podcasts.
When faced with imperfect choices, treat the decision like a standardized test question: gather the best available information and choose the option you believe is the *most* correct, even if it's not perfect. This mindset accepts ambiguity and focuses on making the best possible choice in the moment.
Instead of waiting for complete information, Alexander Titus's model for action is to ensure the next immediate step is not an irreversible mistake. This allows for faster movement and exploration, as most professional decisions can be undone, unlike major life choices like debt or family.
Decisions aren't equal. Most are reversible "two-way doors." A few, like selling a company, are permanent "one-way doors." Leaders must recognize the difference and apply a more rigorous, contemplative process to irreversible choices, as they have lasting consequences.
In today's rapidly changing tech landscape, waiting for perfect information is a recipe for failure. Cisco's CEO emphasizes the need for decisive action based on incomplete data. Leaders must operate with an "80% rule"—if you have 80% of the necessary information, make the decision and adjust course as you go.
Action, even incorrect action, produces valuable information that clarifies the correct path forward. This bias toward doing over planning is a key trait of outliers. Waiting for perfect information is a silent killer of ambition, while immediate action creates momentum and reveals opportunities.
The common trope of the risk-loving founder is a myth. A more accurate trait is a high tolerance for ambiguity and the ability to make decisions with incomplete information. This is about managing uncertainty strategically, not consistently making high-stakes bets that endanger the entire enterprise.
The most successful founders rarely get the solution right on their first attempt. Their strength lies in persistence combined with adaptability. They treat their initial ideas as hypotheses, take in new data, and are willing to change their approach repeatedly to find what works.
