The future of valuable AI lies not in models trained on the abundant public internet, but in those built on scarce, proprietary data. For fields like robotics and biology, this data doesn't exist to be scraped; it must be actively created, making the data generation process itself the key competitive moat.
LLMs have hit a wall by scraping nearly all available public data. The next phase of AI development and competitive differentiation will come from training models on high-quality, proprietary data generated by human experts. This creates a booming "data as a service" industry for companies like Micro One that recruit and manage these experts.
The next leap in biotech moves beyond applying AI to existing data. CZI pioneers a model where 'frontier biology' and 'frontier AI' are developed in tandem. Experiments are now designed specifically to generate novel data that will ground and improve future AI models, creating a virtuous feedback loop.
While today's focus is on text-based LLMs, the true, defensible AI battleground will be in complex modalities like video. Generating video requires multiple interacting models and unique architectures, creating far greater potential for differentiation and a wider competitive moat than text-based interfaces, which will become commoditized.
For years, access to compute was the primary bottleneck in AI development. Now, as public web data is largely exhausted, the limiting factor is access to high-quality, proprietary data from enterprises and human experts. This shifts the focus from building massive infrastructure to forming data partnerships and expertise.
The adoption of powerful AI architectures like transformers in robotics was bottlenecked by data quality, not algorithmic invention. Only after data collection methods improved to capture more dexterous, high-fidelity human actions did these advanced models become effective, reversing the typical 'algorithm-first' narrative of AI progress.
The value in AI services has shifted from labeling simple data to generating complex, workflow-specific data for agentic AI. This requires research DNA and real-world enterprise deployment—a model Turing calls a "research accelerator," not a data labeling company.
As reinforcement learning (RL) techniques mature, the core challenge shifts from the algorithm to the problem definition. The competitive moat for AI companies will be their ability to create high-fidelity environments and benchmarks that accurately represent complex, real-world tasks, effectively teaching the AI what matters.
If a company and its competitor both ask a generic LLM for strategy, they'll get the same answer, erasing any edge. The only way to generate unique, defensible strategies is by building evolving models trained on a company's own private data.
The concept of "sovereignty" is evolving from data location to model ownership. A company's ultimate competitive moat will be its proprietary foundation model, which embeds tacit knowledge and institutional memory, making the firm more efficient than the open market.
The "bitter lesson" (scale and simple models win) works for language because training data (text) aligns with the output (text). Robotics faces a critical misalignment: it's trained on passive web videos but needs to output physical actions in a 3D world. This data gap is a fundamental hurdle that pure scaling cannot solve.