The ideal AI-powered engineering workflow isn't just one tool, but a fluid cycle. It involves synchronous collaboration with an AI for planning and review, then handing off to an asynchronous agent for implementation and testing, before returning to synchronous mode for the next phase.
As reinforcement learning (RL) techniques mature, the core challenge shifts from the algorithm to the problem definition. The competitive moat for AI companies will be their ability to create high-fidelity environments and benchmarks that accurately represent complex, real-world tasks, effectively teaching the AI what matters.
AI will eliminate the tedious 'hazing' phase of a junior developer's career. Instead of spending years on boilerplate code and simple bug fixes, new engineers will enter an 'officer's school,' immediately focusing on high-level strategic tasks like system architecture and complex problem-solving.
The best UI for an AI tool is a direct function of the underlying model's power. A more capable model unlocks more autonomous 'form factors.' For example, the sudden rise of CLI agents was only possible once models like Claude 3 became capable enough to reliably handle multi-step tasks.
A useful mental model for AGI is child development. Just as a child can be left unsupervised for progressively longer periods, AI agents are seeing their autonomous runtimes increase. AGI arrives when it becomes economically profitable to let an AI work continuously without supervision, much like an independent adult.
Startups like Cognition Labs find their edge not by competing on pre-training large models, but by mastering post-training. They build specialized reinforcement learning environments that teach models specific, real-world workflows (e.g., using Datadog for debugging), creating a defensible niche that larger players overlook.
The definition of AGI is a moving goalpost. Scott Wu argues that today's AI meets the standards that would have been considered AGI a decade ago. As technology automates tasks, human work simply moves to a higher level of abstraction, making percentage-based definitions of AGI flawed.