For years, Japan was a value trap: cheap companies with poor governance hoarded cash. The game changed when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced stewardship and governance codes, creating a top-down, government-backed catalyst for companies to finally improve capital allocation and unlock shareholder value.
While international markets have more volatility and lower trust, their biggest advantage is inefficiency. Many basic services are underdeveloped, creating enormous 'low-hanging fruit' opportunities. Providing a great, reliable service in a market where few things work well can create immense and durable value.
Many see Japan as a value play. The real opportunity is its high number of quality companies (250+ with >40% gross margins) that were historically mismanaged. Ongoing governance reforms are now unlocking the potential of these high-margin franchises.
Drawing on Charlie Munger's wisdom, investment management problems often stem from misaligned incentives. Instead of trying to change people's actions directly, leaders should redesign the incentive structure. Rational individuals will naturally align their behavior with well-constructed incentives that drive desired client outcomes.
Strong, cash-rich businesses often become unfocused and bloated, tolerating poor decisions that would bankrupt lesser firms. ValueAct Capital calls this the 'disease of abundance,' which they aim to cure by refocusing management on core strengths.
A common activist trap is 'ambulance chasing'—looking for problems to fix. ValueAct argues the correct sequence is to first identify a great company with a differentiated investment thesis. The need for influence is secondary, preventing adverse selection.
Investors fixate on Japan's high sovereign debt. However, Wagner points out that the central bank owns a large portion. More importantly, the corporate and household sectors are net cash positive, making the overall economy far less levered than the single headline number suggests.
Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.
The dramatic drop in China's Fixed Asset Investment isn't a sign of economic failure. Instead, it reflects a deliberate government-led "anti-involution" campaign to strip out industrial overcapacity. This painful but planned adjustment aims to create a more streamlined, profitable economy, fundamentally reordering its growth model away from sheer volume.
A large government commitment, like the $80 billion nuclear development plan with Westinghouse, does more than create a single customer. It acts as a powerful catalyst for the entire industry. This de-risks the supply chain, signals market viability, and attracts massive private capital (e.g., Brookfield), creating tailwinds for all players.
In a market dominated by short-term traders and passive indexers, companies crave long-duration shareholders. Firms that hold positions for 5-10 years and focus on long-term strategy gain a competitive edge through better access to management, as companies are incentivized to engage with stable partners over transient capital.