Many see Japan as a value play. The real opportunity is its high number of quality companies (250+ with >40% gross margins) that were historically mismanaged. Ongoing governance reforms are now unlocking the potential of these high-margin franchises.

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Many investors focus on the current size of a company's competitive advantage. A better indicator of future success is the direction of that moat—is it growing or shrinking? Focusing on the trajectory helps avoid value traps like Nokia in 2007, which had a wide but deteriorating moat.

While international markets have more volatility and lower trust, their biggest advantage is inefficiency. Many basic services are underdeveloped, creating enormous 'low-hanging fruit' opportunities. Providing a great, reliable service in a market where few things work well can create immense and durable value.

Some companies execute a 3-5 year plan and then revert to average returns. Others 'win by winning'—their success creates new opportunities and network effects, turning them into decade-long compounders that investors often sell too early.

A powerful, overlooked competitive moat exists in the "outsourced R&D" model. These companies, like Core Labs in energy or Christian Hansen in food, become so integral to clients' innovation that they command high margins and valuations that appear expensive when viewed only through the lens of their specific industry.

For years, Japan was a value trap: cheap companies with poor governance hoarded cash. The game changed when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced stewardship and governance codes, creating a top-down, government-backed catalyst for companies to finally improve capital allocation and unlock shareholder value.

Investors fixate on Japan's high sovereign debt. However, Wagner points out that the central bank owns a large portion. More importantly, the corporate and household sectors are net cash positive, making the overall economy far less levered than the single headline number suggests.

Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.

Use gross margin as a quick filter for a new business idea. A low margin often indicates a lack of differentiation or true value-add. If a customer won't pay a premium, it suggests they have alternatives and you're competing in a commoditized space, facing inevitable margin compression.

The best investment deals are not deeply discounted, low-quality items like "unsellable teal crocodile loafers." Instead, they are the rare, high-quality assets that seldom come on sale. For investors, the key is to have the conviction and preparedness to act decisively when these infrequent opportunities appear.

In a market dominated by short-term traders and passive indexers, companies crave long-duration shareholders. Firms that hold positions for 5-10 years and focus on long-term strategy gain a competitive edge through better access to management, as companies are incentivized to engage with stable partners over transient capital.

Japan's Investment Appeal Lies in High-Quality Businesses, Not Just Cheap Valuations | RiffOn