Counterintuitively, the tobacco industry thrives despite losing millions of customers. As casual smokers quit, the remaining base is more addicted and less price-sensitive. Companies exploit this by raising prices faster than sales volume declines, increasing profits from a shrinking market.

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Brands are now combining price hikes with "shrinkflation," a tactic dubbed "maximiniflation." Milka chocolate, for example, raised its price and reduced its bar size, causing a 20% sales drop in Germany. Consumers are now hyper-aware of these dual tactics, making it a critical risk for brand reputation.

Entrepreneurs often chase trending markets. However, even a market in slight decline, like craft beer, can be enormous ($28 billion). Capturing a tiny fraction (e.g., 0.05%) of such a market can still result in a nine-figure business, making it a viable opportunity.

Pricing power allows a brand to raise prices without losing customers, effectively fighting the economic principle that demand falls as price rises. This is achieved by creating a brand perception so strong that consumers believe there is no viable substitute.

In explosive markets like GLP-1 drugs, significant price drops and margin compression (e.g., from 80% to 60%) don't necessarily harm profits. The sheer volume of new customers can completely offset lower per-unit profitability, leading to far greater overall earnings.

Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies drove revenue through price increases, but this came at the cost of falling volumes. By pushing prices closer to the perceived value, they eliminated the "consumer surplus"—the extra value a customer feels they get. This made private label alternatives more attractive and damaged long-term brand relevance.

Aggregate profitability can mask serious issues. A company's positive bottom line might be propped up by one highly profitable offer while another "bestseller" is actually losing money on every sale. This requires a granular, per-product profitability analysis to uncover.

When a new KFC premium product wasn't selling, they doubled the price instead of discounting it. This aligned the price with consumer expectations for a premium item, signaling quality and causing sales to soar. Low prices can imply low quality for high-end goods.

Many subscription companies employ a "penetration strategy," pricing below cost to attract a large user base. Once loyalty is established, they leverage their pricing power to increase profits, shifting focus from pure growth to appeasing shareholders who now demand profitability.

During the 2008 financial crisis, Backroads didn't just cut costs. They re-tooled the company to amplify their strengths, adding a third leader and a second van to trips. This premium shift improved their value proposition and led to higher profit margins post-recession, a counterintuitive move in a downturn.

Top retailers report stable holiday sales, but this masks a weaker overall market with a negative trend. These giants are not thriving due to a strong consumer, but by capturing significant market share from smaller competitors in a contracting environment.

Tobacco Firms Profit From Decline by Exploiting Their Most Addicted Smokers | RiffOn