Entrepreneurs often chase trending markets. However, even a market in slight decline, like craft beer, can be enormous ($28 billion). Capturing a tiny fraction (e.g., 0.05%) of such a market can still result in a nine-figure business, making it a viable opportunity.

Related Insights

Initial data suggested the market for design tools was too small to build a large business. Figma's founders bet on the trend that design was becoming a key business differentiator, which would force the market to expand. They focused on building for the trend, not the existing TAM.

For consumption-based models, simple size-based segmentation (SMB, Enterprise) is insufficient. Stripe and Vercel use a two-axis model: company size (x-axis) and growth potential (y-axis). A small company growing at 200% YoY is more valuable and warrants more sales investment than a large, stagnant one.

By launching a beer so strong (30% ABV) that it is illegal in 15 states, Sam Adams creates an aura of exclusivity and rebellion. This "banned" status generates significant earned media and attracts connoisseurs, turning a product limitation into a powerful marketing tool that reinforces the brand's craft credentials.

Lyft's CEO argues the competition is not a binary battle with Uber for their combined 2.5 billion annual rides. Instead, the true target market is the 160 billion rides Americans take in their own cars. This reframes the opportunity from market share theft to massive market expansion and conversion.

Large platforms focus on massive opportunities right in front of them ('gold bricks at their feet'). They consciously ignore even valuable markets that require more effort ('gold bricks 100 feet away'). This strategic neglect creates defensible spaces for startups in those niche areas.

The belief that you must find an untapped, 'blue ocean' market is a fallacy. In a connected world, every opportunity is visible and becomes saturated quickly. Instead of looking for a secret angle, focus on self-awareness and superior execution within an existing market.

Despite declining wine consumption among young people, Beatbox thrived by changing its product's positioning. It targeted beer's use cases—concerts, gas stations, casual settings—rather than competing with traditional wines. This proves that smart positioning can overcome negative category trends.

Conventional venture capital wisdom of 'winner-take-all' may not apply to AI applications. The market is expanding so rapidly that it can sustain multiple, fast-growing, highly valuable companies, each capturing a significant niche. For VCs, this means huge returns don't necessarily require backing a monopoly.

Seeing an existing successful business is validation, not a deterrent. By copying their current model, you start where they are today, bypassing their years of risky experimentation and learning. The market is large enough for multiple winners.

If your product category becomes commoditized, redefine your business around your core expertise. A kombucha maker isn't just selling a drink; they are in the 'probiotics' or 'gut health' business. This strategic reframing can unlock higher-margin opportunities like consulting and R&D.