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Populist movements disproportionately attract the young, who seek ideology and direction, and the old, who see societal changes threatening their fixed status. The middle-aged, empowered by their prime earning years and sense of agency, are conspicuously less engaged in these movements.
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When the economic system, particularly the housing market, makes it impossible for the youth to get ahead, it guarantees the rise of populism. Desperation leads them to vote for any promise of change, however destructive, such as socialist policies that ultimately collapse the economy.
Economic policies benefiting older, asset-owning generations at the expense of younger ones are reshaping politics. The traditional left-right divide is becoming less relevant than the conflict between classes, which is highly correlated with age, creating unusual political alliances between formerly opposed groups.
The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.
A key driver of Trump's electoral shift was a coalition of two groups: young men under 30 and women aged 45-64. The thesis is that mothers, seeing their sons struggling economically and socially, voted for radical change out of desperation. For them, a system shake-up was more important than specific policies on issues like Ukraine or abortion rights.
The feeling of living paycheck-to-paycheck creates a 'psychological torture' and a sense of dread that transcends traditional political allegiances. This shared economic anxiety makes voters, including crossover Trump supporters, receptive to populist messages from both ends of the spectrum, whether from Donald Trump or from progressives like AOC and Bernie Sanders.
The traditional left-right political axis is obsolete. A better framework is the 'political horseshoe,' which captures the generational conflict where younger people, facing a future of deglobalization and AI job displacement, are forming new coalitions outside the established consensus upheld by older generations.
A deep distrust of the bipartisan "neoliberal consensus" has made many young people receptive to any counter-narrative, whether from the left or right. This creates a powerful anti-establishment bloc that finds common ground in opposing the status quo, explaining the crossover appeal of populist figures.
Recent election results reveal two distinct Americas defined by age. Younger voters are overwhelmingly rejecting the political establishment, feeling that policies created by and for older generations have left them with a diminished version of the country. This generational gap now supersedes many traditional political alignments.
In times of economic inequality, people are psychologically driven to vote for policies that punish a perceived enemy—like the wealthy or immigrants—rather than those that directly aid the poor. This powerful emotional desire for anger and a villain fuels populist leaders.
Populist movements are often driven by a collective intuition that the system is rigged, not by complex intellectual analysis. People can viscerally "feel" when they're being taken advantage of, demonstrating a form of societal awareness that can precede formal critique from the educated class.
