History shows that transformative technologies—the industrial revolution, electricity, the internet—create massive long-term value. However, they also render the skills of one to two generations of workers obsolete, leading to widespread career and economic disruption for those individuals before their grandchildren reap the benefits.

Drawing on Frédéric Bastiat's "seen and unseen" principle, AI doomerism is a classic economic fallacy. It focuses on tangible job displacement ("the seen") while completely missing the new industries, roles, and creative potential that technology inevitably unlocks ("the unseen"), a pattern repeated throughout history.

History's major technological shifts—industrialization, electrification, the internet—each wiped out the careers of one to two generations. Those workers suffered while their grandchildren benefited. AI is likely to repeat this pattern, creating a generational chasm between those who lose and those who gain.

Pessimism about AI-driven job losses overlooks historical precedent. The transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy caused massive job displacement but ultimately created far more new jobs. Similarly, AI will likely generate new, currently unimaginable roles and industries.

Contrary to fears of mass unemployment, AI will create new industries and roles. While transitional unemployment will occur, the demand for more energy, AI-related regulation (e.g., government lawyers), and new leisure sectors will generate significant job growth, offsetting the displacement from automation.

AI's impact on labor will likely follow a deceptive curve: an initial boost in productivity as it augments human workers, followed by a crash as it masters their domains and replaces them entirely. This creates a false sense of security, delaying necessary policy responses.

Concerns about immediate AI-driven job losses are premature. True labor displacement requires a lengthy phase-in period for broad enterprise adoption, building new application layers, and integrating AI into existing workflows and processes, which takes significant time.

The panic-inducing Citrini paper, which caused a market sell-off, assumes a static economy where AI only destroys jobs. It completely ignores historical precedents where new efficiencies unlock unforeseen demand and create entirely new industries, a concept similar to the Jevons paradox.

Unlike gradual agricultural or industrial shifts, AI is displacing blue and white-collar jobs globally and simultaneously. This rapid, compressed timeframe leaves little room for adaptation, making societal unrest and violence highly probable without proactive planning.