An entrepreneur's success rate dramatically shifted from 0 for 12 to 5 for 5 not because his execution improved, but because his project selection did. He stopped chasing high-risk, "one in a million" moonshots (like building the next social network) and focused on businesses with clearer paths to revenue (e-commerce, services).
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Success brings knowledge, but it also creates a bias against trying unconventional ideas. Early-stage entrepreneurs are "too dumb to know it was dumb," allowing them to take random shots with high upside. Experienced founders often filter these out, potentially missing breakthroughs, fun, and valuable memories.
Contrary to popular belief, successful entrepreneurs are not reckless risk-takers. They are experts at systematically eliminating risk. They validate demand before building, structure deals to minimize capital outlay (e.g., leasing planes), and enter markets with weak competition. Their goal is to win with the least possible exposure.
Intentionally scaling back your primary business and revenue targets creates the space necessary for creative exploration. This can lead to discovering more scalable and profitable opportunities that ultimately generate far greater success than the original, high-effort path.
To increase the odds of success, Moonshot AI's founder advises choosing a startup path that operates in "easy mode." This framework involves selecting a market you're passionate about, leveraging the core strengths of the founding team, and aligning with strong market tailwinds. While no startup is easy, this approach simplifies key variables.
Instead of chasing trends or pivoting every few weeks, founders should focus on a singular mission that stems from their unique expertise and conviction. This approach builds durable, meaningful companies rather than simply chasing valuations.
Winning in business requires three core components. First, a tangible money-making skill like sales or marketing. Second, a tenacious, scrappy mindset forged by necessity. Third, the ability to select good projects, a skill often learned by first pursuing and eliminating bad ones.
The dominant VC narrative demands founders focus on a single venture. However, successful entrepreneurs demonstrate that running multiple projects—a portfolio approach mirrored by VCs themselves—is a viable path, contrary to the "focus on one thing" dogma.
A project that fails financially can still yield your most valuable opportunities. Tim Ferriss's advisory work for StumbleUpon was a "zero," but the strong relationship he built with its founder led directly to his role as an early advisor at Uber. Optimize for relationships, as they transcend any single project's outcome.
Seeing an existing successful business is validation, not a deterrent. By copying their current model, you start where they are today, bypassing their years of risky experimentation and learning. The market is large enough for multiple winners.
Finding entrepreneurial success often requires a decade-long period of trial and error. This phase of launching seemingly "dumb" or failed projects is not a sign of incompetence but a necessary learning curve to develop skills, judgment, and self-awareness. The key is to keep learning and taking shots.