There's a surprising disconnect between the perceived brilliance of individual investors at large, well-known private equity firms and their actual net-to-LP returns, which are often no better than the market median. This violates the assumption that top talent automatically generates outlier results.

A16z's foundational belief is that founders, not hired "professional CEOs," should lead their companies long-term. The firm is structured as a network of specialists to provide founders with the knowledge and connections they lack, enabling them to grow into the CEO role and succeed.

The most common failure mode for a founder-CEO isn't a lack of competence, but a crisis of confidence. This leads to hesitation on critical decisions, especially firing an underperforming executive. The excuses for delaying are merely symptoms of this confidence gap.

Many LPs focus solely on backing the 'best people.' However, a manager's chosen strategy and market (the 'neighborhood') is a more critical determinant of success. A brilliant manager playing a difficult game may underperform a good manager in a structurally advantaged area.

When making early-stage investments, avoid the common pitfall of betting on just a great idea or just a great founder. A successful investment requires deep belief in both. Every time the speaker has invested with only one of the two criteria met, they have lost money. The mandate must be 'two for two.'

All founders make high-impact mistakes. The critical failure point is when those mistakes erode their confidence, leading to hesitation. This indecisiveness creates a power vacuum, causing senior employees to get nervous and jockey for position, which spirals the organization into a dysfunctional, political state.

Experience taught Herb Wagner that great leaders consistently surprise on the upside. He now weights leadership quality far more heavily, assessing CEOs not by interviews or charisma, but by their verifiable track record and through trusted backchannel references who have worked with them directly.

A common activist trap is 'ambulance chasing'—looking for problems to fix. ValueAct argues the correct sequence is to first identify a great company with a differentiated investment thesis. The need for influence is secondary, preventing adverse selection.

The venture capital return model has shifted so dramatically that even some multi-billion-dollar exits are insufficient. This forces VCs to screen for 'immortal' founders capable of building $10B+ companies from inception, making traditionally solid businesses run by 'mortal founders' increasingly uninvestable by top funds.