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Good references are insufficient; you need exceptional ones. Sean Maguire applies the chess ELO rating system to due diligence, arguing that only a top-tier individual can accurately identify another potential outlier. Merely "good" people often cannot spot true genius, making the source of the reference critical.
Instead of only requesting positive references, Sequoia partner Doug Leone asks founders, "Who would be your worst reference and why?" The goal isn't to find perfection, but to assess the founder's clarity, honesty, and self-awareness in how they answer the unexpected and challenging question.
Andreessen uses a simple heuristic to gauge a founder's intelligence, which he considers table stakes. If he finds himself opening his notebook and writing down a lot of notes because he is learning from the founder, it's a clear indicator that they possess the high IQ necessary for success.
Sequoia quantifies its search for 'outlier founders' in statistical terms. An exceptional founder is three standard deviations above the mean in a key trait, but a true outlier is four. This statistical lens explains their high bar, reviewing around 1,000 companies for every single investment.
David Cohen of Techstars advises founders to request references from a VC's failed investments. This reveals how an investor behaves during difficult times, providing a more honest assessment of their character and support level than speaking only with successful founders.
Due to the nascent and highly specialized nature of AI, VCs find that traditional expert networks are no longer effective for diligence. Instead, they must rely on curated personal networks of deep specialists who can genuinely assess new technologies and teams.
Brian Singerman's venture strategy was almost entirely focused on founder assessment, making up over 98% of his decision. He famously doesn't read financial reports or use spreadsheets, instead concentrating all his effort on one question: is this founder the best in the world at something novel?
When selecting new GPs to back, Brian Singerman uses a powerful heuristic: could this person, playing their own unique game, have beaten him at his peak as a VC? This test cuts through superficial metrics to identify raw, world-class talent, irrespective of their specific investment strategy.
Rabois's investment formula requires a founder to be the absolute best he's ever met in at least one specific dimension—be it intelligence, tenacity, or strategy. He avoids investing in founders who are merely B+ across the board, betting instead on extreme, world-class exceptionalism.
For over a decade, Sequoia has systematically asked top operators, 'Who are your five smartest peers?' By tracking responses in a proprietary CRM, they've built a talent map that functions like a 'PageRank for people.' This system allows them to assess engineering team quality deep within organizations, providing a unique diligence advantage.
Interviews can be misleading as founders are skilled at presenting well. Venture investor Naveen Chaddha relies heavily on extensive back-channel references to create an "X-ray" of a founder's history. He believes that while founders can craft a narrative, they cannot hide from their past actions and reputation.