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Dara Khosrowshahi's M&A experience taught him that great acquisitions often seem overpriced. Markets value companies on linear projections, but transformative companies grow exponentially. The key is to pay for the unseen "hockey stick" growth curve that the market misses, meaning you will always overpay relative to current sentiment.
Traditional valuation models assume growth decays over time. However, when a company at scale, like Databricks, begins to reaccelerate, it defies these models. This rare phenomenon signals an expanding market or competitive advantage, justifying massive valuation premiums that seem disconnected from public comps.
The case of Netflix in 2016, with a P/E over 300, shows that high multiples can reflect a company strategically sacrificing short-term profits for global expansion. Instead of dismissing such stocks as expensive, investors should use second-order thinking to ask *why* the market is pricing in such high growth.
Unlike Private Equity or public markets, venture is maximally forgiving of high entry valuations. The potential for exponential growth (high variance) means a breakout success can still generate massive returns, even if the initial price was wrong, explaining the industry's tolerance for seemingly irrational valuations.
Traditional valuation metrics ignore the most critical drivers of success: leadership, brand, and culture. These unquantifiable assets are not on the balance sheet, causing the best companies to appear perpetually overvalued to conventional analysts. This perceived mispricing creates the investment opportunity.
Acquiring smaller companies at a 5-6x EBITDA multiple and integrating them to reach a larger scale allows you to sell the combined entity at a 10-12x multiple. This multiple expansion is a powerful, often overlooked financial driver of M&A strategies, creating value almost overnight.
In a competitive M&A process where the target is reluctant, a marginal price increase may not work. A winning strategy can be to 'overpay' significantly. This makes the offer financially indefensible for the board to reject and immediately ends the bidding process, guaranteeing the acquisition.
Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.
Investors instinctively value the distant future cash flows of elite compounding businesses higher than traditional financial models suggest. This phenomenon, known as hyperbolic discounting, helps explain why these companies consistently command premium multiples, as the market behaves more aligned with this model than standard exponential discounting.
Public market investors often build financial models that automatically taper down high growth rates (e.g., 60% to 50% to 40%). This systemic underestimation creates an arbitrage opportunity for private investors who can better value sustained hyper-growth over a longer time horizon.
Traditional valuation doesn't apply to early-stage startups. A VC investment is functionally an out-of-the-money call option. VCs pay a premium for a small percentage, betting that the company's future value will grow so massively that their option expires 'in the money.' This model explains high valuations for pre-revenue companies with huge potential.