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Simply restricting Chinese drone imports was insufficient to create a domestic industry. A successful US industrial policy paired these barriers with a strong demand signal—billions in committed capital from the Department of Defense. This combination created a viable market for US manufacturers.
By banning only *new models* of foreign drones, the FCC is signaling a long-term protected market for U.S. manufacturers. This gradual approach acknowledges that the current domestic industry is uncompetitive and needs time and incentive to scale up to compete with firms like DJI.
The Biden administration's approach to China tariffs was more effective because it was highly targeted at strategic industries and coupled with domestic incentives. Simply imposing broad tariffs is insufficient; smart policy requires pairing trade restrictions with domestic investment to build competitive capacity in areas like semiconductors and batteries.
The US military struggles to scale production of low-cost drones not due to a lack of technical ability, but because its procurement system fails to provide the long-term, multi-year funding commitments industry needs. Without these signals, companies and their supply chains won't risk the capital investment required for mass production.
To counter China's dominance in rare earths, subsidies and tax credits are not enough. The US must also use tools like the Defense Production Act to create long-term, guaranteed demand contracts. This provides stability for private companies to withstand the price volatility caused by Chinese market manipulation and dumping.
While the US can assemble advanced drones, a significant national security risk lies in the supply chain for their basic components, many of which come from China. The strategic imperative is to "shift left" and onshore the manufacturing of these foundational parts to secure the entire defense industrial base, not just the final product.
China's government subsidizes key industries like EVs and drones to achieve global dominance. To compete, the U.S. must move beyond free-market ideals and implement protectionist policies like tariffs and non-trade barriers to incentivize domestic production and mitigate strategic vulnerabilities.
Government intervention is most effective when targeting industries that meet three criteria: they must be critical to national security or the economy, compromised by foreign dependence or choke points, and fundamentally changeable through targeted financial incentives that can shift their long-term economics.
Tariffs are framed not as a temporary negotiating tactic, but as a critical policy to correct 'unnatural,' decades-long trade deficits that hollowed out the US industrial base. By changing the unit economics of building in America, they are a tool for reindustrialization and spurring domestic investment.
The "invisible hand" of the market has led to the hollowing out of America's industrial base. The US should learn from China's focus on production and scale, adapting tools like public investment to crowd in private capital for frontier industries, rather than fully copying China's state-directed model.
The U.S. ban on new foreign drones is a strategic industrial policy. By eliminating competition from market leader DJI, the policy is designed to foster a domestic drone industry that can serve consumer needs while building the capacity to scale production for potential military conflicts.