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  1. Decoder with Nilay Patel
  2. Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US
Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel · Jul 27, 2026

Altana CEO Evan Smith on why tariffs didn't reshore US manufacturing jobs, but simply rerouted supply chains, and how AI is essential now.

US Tariffs on China Simply Rerouted Goods, They Did Not Reshore Manufacturing Jobs

Contrary to policy goals, tariffs on China didn't bring manufacturing jobs to the US. Data shows Chinese goods were just rerouted through third-party countries like Vietnam and Mexico, which in turn imported their components from China. This added complexity and cost without boosting US jobs.

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Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel·a day ago

Agentic AI Merges Product, Design, and Engineering Roles Into Hybrid Functions

Modern AI development tools are blurring traditional job descriptions in software companies. Designers can now ship code, product managers can design and prototype, and engineers can contribute to design, leading to a convergence of these once-siloed roles.

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Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel·a day ago

A 'Trusted Traveler' Program for Goods Will Replace Random Customs Inspections

The current customs process is broken, relying on random sampling with low hit rates. The future is a system of "product passports" creating a library of continuously monitored, vetted goods. This shifts the paradigm from inspecting every transaction to verifying pre-approved product identities.

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Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel·a day ago

US Manufacturing Output Rises Post-Tariffs, But Jobs Decline Due to Automation

Data reveals a paradoxical trend: US manufacturing output is growing, but the number of manufacturing jobs is shrinking. This suggests that any reshoring or new production is being accomplished through industrial automation, not by bringing back assembly line jobs as policymakers had hoped.

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Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel·a day ago

AI Agents Achieve Efficiency by Codifying Standard Operating Procedures, Not Just Predicting Tokens

AI's value in logistics extends beyond raw inference. Agentic systems learn from user interactions and messy data to create and refine Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). This allows them to handle complex, recurring tasks with increasing efficiency over time, unlike models that start from scratch.

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Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel·a day ago

Altana's Federated Model Builds a Global Supply Chain Map Without Pooling Sensitive Data

To overcome data sovereignty concerns, Altana brings its platform to its clients' data rather than centralizing it. It extracts learnings—like supply chain connections and model improvements—without copying sensitive details like pricing. This federated approach enables a shared intelligence network.

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Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel·a day ago

Building a Domestic Drone Industry Required Both Tariffs and Guaranteed Government Demand

Simply restricting Chinese drone imports was insufficient to create a domestic industry. A successful US industrial policy paired these barriers with a strong demand signal—billions in committed capital from the Department of Defense. This combination created a viable market for US manufacturers.

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Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel·a day ago

High Frontier AI Model Costs Force Tech Companies to Implement Internal Controls

The significant cost of advanced AI models ($20-$50 per million tokens) is no longer a trivial expense for internal development. Companies are now implementing observability, permissioning systems, and other controls to manage "token burn" and ensure a positive ROI on AI-assisted work.

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Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel·a day ago

Scaling Startups Must Shift from Founder Conviction to Domain Expert-Led Product Decisions

Early on, founder conviction drives product. To scale, Altana injected deep domain experts in trade, customs, and logistics into the product process. Combined with new AI tools, these experts can now validate and execute on product judgments much faster than a founder could alone.

Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US thumbnail

Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

Decoder with Nilay Patel·a day ago