Unlike previous cycles dominated by a few government-incentivized mega projects, the current increase in US manufacturing investment is characterized by a high number of smaller announcements. This indicates the trend is driven by fundamental economics, not isolated incentives, suggesting greater durability and a more sustainable, widespread industrial shift.

For commodities to benefit from reflation, rising inflation alone is not sufficient. It must be accompanied by a genuine economic and industrial rebound, indicated by rising Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs). This combination dramatically improves commodity returns, especially for energy and industrial metals.

Bitcoin's price has a strong historical correlation with the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Its recent underperformance, despite a risk-on environment in equities, is likely due to the prolonged manufacturing recession rather than specific weakness in the digital asset itself.

The longest manufacturing recession on record (3 years of ISM below 50) is reversing. The combination of interest rate relief, 100% accelerated equipment depreciation, and reshoring trends is creating a powerful setup for capital-intensive industries to experience a significant boom.

A wide range of historically reliable leading indicators—including copper prices, non-traded commodities, Korean equities, and small-cap stocks—are all simultaneously pointing towards a strengthening global cyclical outlook. This alignment across different assets and regions provides a more substantive and reliable signal than any single indicator could.

While AI infrastructure gets the attention, a quiet industrial revival is underway. The combination of fiscal incentives, manufacturing reshoring, and better financing conditions could soon reactivate stocks in logistics, HVAC, and transport that have been in an 'ISM recession' for years.

An index of non-traded industrial commodities like glass and tin provides a clearer view of true economic activity. Because these materials are not easily traded by financial investors, their price movements are less likely to be influenced by speculative activity and more directly reflect genuine industrial demand, making them a purer leading indicator.

A sharp, V-shaped rebound in corporate earnings revision breadth is a powerful but uncommon leading indicator. It suggests the private economy is decisively exiting an earnings recession and shifting into an early-cycle recovery, often before traditional economic data confirms the trend.

While any individual economic indicator can be misleading or explained away by unique factors, a collective alignment of multiple, diverse signals (like commodities, specific equities, and bond yields) creates a powerful, trustworthy forecast for stronger global growth.