The convergence of positive global growth indicators raises a crucial question for monetary policy. If the economic backdrop is genuinely strengthening, as these diverse signals suggest, it undermines the justification for central banks to implement further rate cuts. This creates a potential divergence between improving economic reality and market expectations for easing.
An index of non-traded industrial commodities like glass and tin provides a clearer view of true economic activity. Because these materials are not easily traded by financial investors, their price movements are less likely to be influenced by speculative activity and more directly reflect genuine industrial demand, making them a purer leading indicator.
A wide range of historically reliable leading indicators—including copper prices, non-traded commodities, Korean equities, and small-cap stocks—are all simultaneously pointing towards a strengthening global cyclical outlook. This alignment across different assets and regions provides a more substantive and reliable signal than any single indicator could.