When evaluating a startup, don't accept analogous trends as proof of demand. For example, Drift's pitch deck used consumer messaging growth to justify B2B marketing software. A better approach is to find direct evidence of business users already struggling with the specific project the product addresses.
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To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.
Vanity metrics like total revenue can be misleading. A startup might acquire many low-priced, low-usage customers without solving a core problem. Deep, consistent user engagement statistics are a much stronger indicator of genuine, 'found' demand than top-line numbers alone.
Successful startups tap into organic customer needs that already exist—a 'pull' from the market. In contrast, 'conjuring demand' involves a founder trying to convince a market of a new worldview without prior evidence. This is a much harder and less reliable path to building a business.
Visionary founders often try to sell their entire, world-changing vision from day one, which confuses buyers. To gain traction, this grand vision must be broken down into a specific, digestible solution that solves an immediate, painful problem. Repeatable sales come from a narrow focus, not a broad promise.
Instead of searching for a market to serve, founders should solve a problem they personally experience. This "bottom-up" approach guarantees product-market fit for at least one person—the founder—providing a solid foundation to build upon and avoiding the common failure of abstract, top-down market analysis.
For deep tech startups aiming for commercialization, validating market pull isn't a downstream activity—it's a prerequisite. Spending years in a lab without first identifying a specific customer group and the critical goal they are blocked from achieving is an enormous, avoidable risk.
During validation calls for Merge, prospective customers expressed extreme annoyance with the status quo but were skeptical the founders could technically solve it. This combination was the ultimate signal: the pain was immense, and a successful solution would be highly defensible and valuable.
A common marketing mistake is being product-centric. Instead of selling a pre-packaged product, first identify the customer's primary business challenge. Then, frame and adapt your offering as the specific solution to that problem, ensuring immediate relevance and value.
