Contrary to popular hope, a scenario where Ukraine fully expels Russia and regains all territory is a 'total fantasy.' Based on historical precedent, the war has only two realistic outcomes: a Ukrainian collapse under sustained pressure or a compromise peace that grants Russia de facto control of some territory.

There's a high risk that the EU, facing its own fiscal pressures, will not fulfill its promises of membership and reconstruction aid to Ukraine after the war. This could foster a powerful and destabilizing 'betrayal narrative' within Ukraine, which sees itself as having fought for Europe's security.

The loss of unifying religious morality created an initial societal void. Social media then amplified this by exposing people to a tsunami of viewpoints, resulting in an 'infinite fracturing of frame of reference' and the creation of countless micro-tribes that erode social cohesion.

The most significant challenge to a lasting peace is not agreeing on territorial lines but on the implementation sequence. Debates over whether a ceasefire, troop withdrawal, security guarantees, or referendums should come first create complex logistical and trust issues that could easily cause a deal to collapse.

While people form strong ideological tribes online, these virtual communities offer no protection from physical threats. During societal instability, geography becomes paramount, as people self-select into physically safe locations, reinforcing regional divides.

When a political movement is out of power, it's easy to unify against a common opponent. Once they gain power and become the establishment, internal disagreements surface, leading to factions and infighting as they debate the group's future direction.

Persistent diplomatic efforts and speculation about a looming end to the war have a detrimental effect on the Ukrainian military. This creates uncertainty that discourages enlistment and harms morale, as potential recruits question the need to join a conflict that might soon be settled by external powers.

Ukraine's most realistic theory of success is not reclaiming all territory militarily, but leveraging its advantages to stabilize the front and inflict unsustainable casualties and economic costs on Russia. This strategy aims to make the war so futile for Moscow that it forces a favorable negotiated settlement.

Beneath the official government narrative of resilience and total victory, a significant portion (40%) of the Ukrainian population is tired of the war and now open to a compromise to end the fighting, revealing significant war fatigue.