The disconnect between strong GDP data and public dissatisfaction (the 'vibe-cession') is because wealth gains are concentrated at the top while median outcomes worsen. This K-shaped dynamic is politically unsustainable, forcing politicians away from supply-side policies and toward more populist, and often inflationary, measures.

The ratio of leading-to-coincident economic indicators is at historic lows seen only in deep recessions (1982, 2009). However, this may be skewed by the leading indicators' reliance on extremely negative consumer sentiment surveys. This divergence suggests we might be at the bottom of a cycle, not the beginning of a downturn.

Aggregate economic data looks positive because the top 10% of households drive consumption. However, the bottom 90% are experiencing financial distress, which is reflected in negative consumer sentiment. The 'average' consumer experience doesn't exist, leading to a disconnect between official statistics and public perception.

The US economy's perceived strength is fragile because it rests on a dangerously narrow foundation. Job growth is concentrated in healthcare, stock market gains are driven by a handful of AI giants, and business investment is similarly focused. This lack of diversification makes the economy vulnerable and fuels public anxiety.

The University of Michigan's "Current Conditions Index" has fallen to its lowest point since 1978, indicating extreme dissatisfaction with the present economy. This pessimism is deeper than during the Great Recession, even as consumers maintain some hope for improvement in the next six months.

Despite headline economic growth, the bottom 80% of U.S. households have seen their spending power stagnate since before the pandemic. Their spending has grown at exactly the rate of inflation, meaning their real consumption hasn't increased. This data explains the widespread public dissatisfaction with the economy.

Despite America's high standard of living, decades of wage stagnation have created a national psychology of pessimism. Conversely, China's explosive wage growth, even from a lower base, fosters optimism. This psychological dimension, driven by the *trajectory* of wealth, is a powerful and often overlooked political force.

A major disconnect exists between Wall Street and Main Street. While jobs data points towards a potential recession, the S&P 500 is hitting record highs. Since recessions are historically preceded by market downturns, investors are signaling a strong disbelief in the negative labor market signals.

Contrary to intuition, widespread fear and discussion of a market bubble often precede a final, insane surge upward. The real crash tends to happen later, when the consensus shifts to believing in a 'new economic model.' This highlights a key psychological dynamic of market cycles where peak anxiety doesn't signal an immediate top.