The ratio of leading-to-coincident economic indicators is at historic lows seen only in deep recessions (1982, 2009). However, this may be skewed by the leading indicators' reliance on extremely negative consumer sentiment surveys. This divergence suggests we might be at the bottom of a cycle, not the beginning of a downturn.

Consumer spending resilience is not broad-based. It's largely driven by the top 10% of income earners (making over $275k), who now account for almost 50% of total spending. This is the only cohort whose spending has outpaced inflation since the pandemic, making the wider economy highly sensitive to their behavior.

Despite headline economic growth, the bottom 80% of U.S. households have seen their spending power stagnate since before the pandemic. Their spending has grown at exactly the rate of inflation, meaning their real consumption hasn't increased. This data explains the widespread public dissatisfaction with the economy.

Despite official CPI averaging under 2% from 2010-2020, the actual cost of major assets like homes and stocks exploded. This disconnect shows that government inflation data fails to reflect the reality of eroding purchasing power, which is a key driver of public frustration.

Analysis reveals a heavy concentration of spending at the top: the highest decile of income earners is now responsible for 49.2% of all personal outlays. This makes the overall US economy highly dependent on the financial health and confidence of a very small, affluent segment of the population, increasing systemic risk.

Official inflation metrics (rate of change) are meaningless to the public. People feel the pain of absolute price levels versus their stagnant wages, creating a disconnect that fuels widespread economic apathy and anger, regardless of what government data says.

Headline GDP figures can be misleading in an environment of high immigration and inflation. Metrics like per-capita energy consumption or the number of labor hours needed to afford goods provide a more accurate picture of individual well-being, revealing that many feel poorer despite positive official growth numbers.

Official inflation metrics may be low, but public perception remains negative because wages haven't kept pace with the *cumulative* price increases since the pandemic. Consumers feel a "permanent price increase" on essential goods like groceries, making them feel poorer even if the rate of new inflation has slowed.

With the top 10% of earners accounting for half of all consumer spending, the U.S. economy has become dangerously top-heavy. This concentration creates systemic risk, as a stock market downturn or even a minor shift toward caution among this small group could trigger a sharp recession, with no offsetting demand from the rest of the population.