Cryptocurrency's strategic impact isn't its potential to replace the entire financial system, but its ability to absorb the relatively small but critical volume of global transactions related to crime and sanctions evasion, where it can be uniquely effective.

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Blockchain's disruption will not impact all of finance equally. Trading firms are safe because market making is a fundamental need. However, intermediaries like banks, exchanges, and custodians face an existential threat as their core function—managing ledgers and access—is directly replaced by blockchain's "private key and a ledger" infrastructure.

While private crypto has scams, the true systemic risk is Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Being programmable and centralized, they give governments the power to monitor, block, and control every citizen's transactions, creating an infrastructure for authoritarian control under the guise of progress.

Governments fund wars with opaque money printing. Because Bitcoin cannot be printed, it would force leaders to use direct taxation, which citizens would resist. Its unseizable nature also removes the economic incentive of conquering nations for their reserves.

The proliferation of local crypto exchanges in emerging markets has created robust, stablecoin-dominated trading environments. These function as highly efficient, alternative foreign exchange markets, enabling faster and cheaper cross-border value transfer than traditional rails.

Each time the U.S. uses financial sanctions, it demonstrates the risks of relying on the dollar system. This incentivizes adversaries like Russia and China to accelerate the development of parallel financial infrastructure, weakening the dollar's long-term network effect and dominance.

The current crypto environment mirrors the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis. 'Good money is chasing after many intrinsically weak assets,' which are then complexly leveraged and integrated into the balance sheets of systemically important institutions, creating a growing, underappreciated systemic risk.

In a de-dollarizing, low-trust geopolitical landscape, Bitcoin's core value isn't as a currency but as a digitally native, government-proof form of collateral. Unlike gold or treasuries, it's instantly transferable and cannot be confiscated by a hostile sovereign power, making it a superior neutral asset.

Multicoin's central thesis is that crypto's ultimate purpose is creating "Internet Capital Markets"—the ability to trade any asset, from anywhere, 24/7, via any software. This broad vision of permissionless, programmable finance is seen as the most significant long-term impact of blockchain, destined to supersede more niche consumer applications or "Web3" concepts.

After years of exploring various use cases, crypto's clearest product-market fit is as a new version of the financial system. The success of stablecoins, prediction markets, and decentralized trading platforms demonstrates that financial applications are where crypto currently has the strongest, most undeniable traction.

While the Dodd-Frank Act successfully bolstered regulated banks, it pushed systemic risk into less visible parts of the financial system like crypto. The challenge has transformed from managing institutions that are 'too big to fail' to identifying risks in areas that are 'too small to see' and outside the regulatory perimeter.