Each time the U.S. uses financial sanctions, it demonstrates the risks of relying on the dollar system. This incentivizes adversaries like Russia and China to accelerate the development of parallel financial infrastructure, weakening the dollar's long-term network effect and dominance.
Global demand for dollars as the reserve currency forces the U.S. to run persistent trade deficits to supply them. This strengthens the dollar and boosts import power but hollows out the domestic industrial base. A future decline in dollar demand would create a painful economic transition.
A top Putin advisor's claim that the US is using crypto to devalue its debt is not genuine concern. It is a calculated geopolitical move to publicly discredit the dollar while promoting the alternative gold-backed monetary system that Russia and China are actively building together.
The primary risk for the U.S. is not the inevitable decline of the dollar's dominance, which could rebalance the economy. The danger lies in trying to fight this trend, leading to a disorderly and painful collapse rather than a graceful, managed transition from a position of strength.
The U.S. economy's ability to consume more than it produces is not due to superior productivity but to the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. This allows the U.S. to export paper currency and import real goods, a privilege that is now at risk as the world diversifies away from the dollar.
The US dollar reached its peak global dominance in the early 2000s. The world is now gradually shifting to a system where multiple currencies (like the euro and yuan) and neutral assets (like gold) share the role of reserve currency, marking a return to a more historically normal state.
The Canadian government freezing the bank accounts of citizens for making legal donations to the Freedom Convoy protestors established a modern precedent. It demonstrated how a Western government can use financial infrastructure to suppress political dissent without trial or due process, foreshadowing the potential risks of centralized digital currencies.
The "military backs the dollar" thesis is being challenged by Russia's performance against NATO, the disruption of naval power by cheap Houthi drones, and China's chokehold on rare earths. This erosion of credible power projection directly weakens the dollar's foundation of global dominance.
Unlike Bitcoin, which sells off during liquidity crunches, gold is being bid up by sovereign nations. This divergence reflects a strategic shift by central banks away from US Treasuries following the sanctioning of Russia's reserves, viewing gold as the only true safe haven asset.
The fall of the dollar as the world's reserve currency isn't an abstract economic event. It would have immediate, tangible consequences for citizens, including skyrocketing prices for imported goods like energy and medicine, a sharp drop in living standards, and an exodus of talent and capital to more stable regions.
As foreign nations sell off US debt, promoting stablecoins backed by US Treasuries creates a new, decentralized global market of buyers. This shrewdly helps the US manage its debt and extend the life of its reserve currency status for decades.