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Ben Horowitz describes passing on Uber's Series B as "torture." For the next decade, he faced constant reminders of the missed opportunity from Travis Kalanick, creating a relationship of mutual respect but also a "cool tension" that underscored the massive consequences of the decision.
True Ventures passed on Uber's seed round because it was a 'project' without a dedicated leader. This demonstrates how a disciplined investment thesis, in this case requiring a 'visionary leader,' can cause a pass on a massive winner but also provides a consistent framework for decisions and peace of mind.
The worst feeling for an investor is not missing a successful deal they didn't understand, but investing against their own judgment in a company that ultimately fails. This emotional cost of violating one's own conviction outweighs the FOMO of passing on a hot deal.
For a venture capital fund, the costliest error isn't investing in a startup that fails (a sin of commission); it's passing on one that becomes a massive success (a sin of omission). This fear drives a high-volume sourcing strategy that prioritizes seeing every potential deal.
For VCs, the financial impact of passing on a generational company far exceeds the losses from investments that go to zero. Author Eric Reiss emphasizes that investors must be psychologically resilient to these misses, as opportunity cost is the most expensive mistake.
The most painful investment misses—the 'anti-portfolio'—can serve as the primary inspiration for a new venture firm's strategy. Nnamdi Okike of 645 Ventures used his experience passing on companies like Skype and Facebook to build a new firm specifically designed to identify and invest in similar opportunities.
Bessemer Venture Partners publicly lists massive companies it passed on to foster a learning culture. This highlights their philosophy that the opportunity cost of missing a transformative company (a crime of omission) is far more damaging than investing in one that fails (a crime of commission).
Uber's early, ambitious investment in autonomous vehicles faced opposition from a key investor. This investor preferred to protect existing gains rather than fund a long-term, capital-intensive project that could have transformed Uber into a trillion-dollar company, revealing a conflict between founder vision and investor risk aversion.
Bessemer Venture Partners maintains a public 'anti-portfolio' of massive companies like Tesla and Atlassian that they passed on. This practice serves as a constant reminder to learn from their 'crimes of omission' and demonstrates respect for the entrepreneurs they say 'no' to.
The most significant career mistakes are often sins of omission, not commission. The regret from passing on a generational opportunity, like Vaynerchuk missing Uber's seed round, far outweighs the financial loss from a bet that didn't work out. The cost of inaction can be astronomical.
Travis Kalanick and Ben Horowitz agree that if A16Z had been on Uber's board, the company's tumultuous 2017—which led to Kalanick's ousting—would have been handled differently. This highlights the critical role of board composition in crisis management and founder support, not just growth.