The most painful investment misses—the 'anti-portfolio'—can serve as the primary inspiration for a new venture firm's strategy. Nnamdi Okike of 645 Ventures used his experience passing on companies like Skype and Facebook to build a new firm specifically designed to identify and invest in similar opportunities.
The worst feeling for an investor is not missing a successful deal they didn't understand, but investing against their own judgment in a company that ultimately fails. This emotional cost of violating one's own conviction outweighs the FOMO of passing on a hot deal.
A core part of a16z's growth fund strategy is to invest in companies the firm's early-stage team passed on. This acts as an internal "fix the mistake fund," providing a structured way to correct errors of omission and get a second chance at breakout companies.
An investor's best career P&L winners are not immediate yeses. They often involve an initial pass by either the investor or the company. This shows that timing and building relationships over multiple rounds can be more crucial than a single early-stage decision, as a 'missed round' isn't a 'missed company'.
Bessemer Venture Partners publicly lists massive companies it passed on to foster a learning culture. This highlights their philosophy that the opportunity cost of missing a transformative company (a crime of omission) is far more damaging than investing in one that fails (a crime of commission).
Investors often reject ideas in markets where previous companies failed, a bias they call "scar tissue." This creates an opportunity for founders who can identify a key change—like new AI technology or shifting consumer behavior—that makes a previously impossible idea now viable.
Rather than abandoning an investment category after a failure, some VCs intentionally fund the same idea again in a new company. This strategy is not about repeating mistakes, but a high-conviction bet that the core idea was simply ahead of its time and that a change in timing or underlying technology will enable its success.
A primary function of Andreessen Horowitz's growth fund is to correct errors of omission from its early-stage team. Joking referred to as the "fix the mistake fund," it provides a second chance to invest in companies the firm initially passed on. This internal synergy is a core part of their multi-stage strategy.
The most critical decision in venture isn't the final investment vote but the mid-funnel choice of which companies get a deep look. The costliest errors are false negatives—great companies dismissed prematurely. Firms should therefore optimize process hygiene at this stage, implementing mandatory post-meeting debriefs to avoid these misses.
Lonsdale recounts passing on brilliant founders with seemingly terrible ideas, only to watch them pivot and build billion-dollar companies like Cursor. The lesson for early-stage investors is to prioritize backing exceptional, world-class talent, even if their initial concept seems flawed, as they possess the ability to find a winning strategy.
Nnamdi Okike's fund passed on an early Skype investment due to the founders' controversial past with the file-sharing company Kazaa. This 'hair on the deal' created legal and reputational concerns that, combined with the deal being too early for the fund's stage, overshadowed the promising internet telephony thesis.