After observing private label's rise against CPG brands, 3G refined its thesis. They now prioritize companies like restaurants (Burger King) or specialized retailers (Hunter Douglas) that have a direct customer relationship, making them less vulnerable to disruption by large distributors like Walmart or Amazon.
Copycats are inevitable for successful CPG products. The best defense isn't intellectual property, but rapid execution by a team that has 'done it before.' Building a diverse distribution footprint and a strong brand quickly makes it harder for competitors to catch up.
Despite a profitable affiliate model, Babylist was heavily reliant on a few large retailers. They chose to enter the complex, lower-margin world of direct e-commerce and warehousing primarily to mitigate platform risk and control their own destiny, not for short-term profit.
Traditional supermarkets derive significant revenue from suppliers through slotting fees and co-op marketing. Trader Joe's rejects this entire "shadow economy," making money only when a customer buys a product. This aligns their incentives completely with the customer, ensuring shelf space is earned by demand, not supplier payments.
Franchising has evolved beyond a mom-and-pop model into a sophisticated asset class. Private equity firms and former investment bankers are now actively acquiring and rolling up large franchise portfolios, signaling a shift towards treating them as major institutional investments.
3G targets family-owned businesses because they often make better long-term decisions without quarterly pressures. Decisions that are negative ROI in the short term (e.g., entering new markets) compound positively over decades, creating more resilient and valuable enterprises.
Public companies, beholden to quarterly earnings, often behave like "psychopaths," optimizing for short-term metrics at the expense of customer relationships. In contrast, founder-led or family-owned firms can invest in long-term customer value, leading to more sustainable success.
Jane Wurwand advises a premium food startup to avoid large supermarkets early on. Big chains demand high volume and have long payment cycles that can crush a new business. Instead, focus on small, high-end local grocers where the brand story can shine and payment terms are more manageable.
3G's Burger King thesis hinged on the disconnect between its global brand recognition and its small enterprise value. When a brand is widely known but the business is underdeveloped or under-monetized, it signals a massive, low-risk growth opportunity that the market may be mispricing.
The strategy of concentrating an entire fund into a single asset creates intense psychological pressure. This forces a rigorous focus on capital preservation and downside scenarios, shaping both business selection and capital structure decisions, rather than just focusing on the upside case.
Jane's strategy avoids direct competition with Amazon by digitizing existing brick-and-mortar retail inventory. This creates an "Amazon-like" online experience for consumers but funnels value back into local economies, a model applicable to groceries, alcohol, and other regulated goods.