MongoDB's CEO argues that AI's disruptive threat to enterprise software is segmented. Companies serving SMBs are most at risk because their products are less sticky and more easily replaced by AI-generated tools. In contrast, vendors serving large enterprises are more protected because "products are always replaceable, platforms are not."

For incumbent software companies, surviving the AI era requires more than superficial changes. They must aggressively reimagine their core product with AI—not just add chatbots—and overhaul back-end operations to match the efficiency of AI-native firms. It's a fundamental "adapt or die" moment.

Merely deploying AI tools like Copilot to employees offers minimal value. The real revolution is using AI to re-engineer core processes from the ground up. For example, AI can reduce a six-week credit file preparation to 14 minutes, forcing a fundamental rethink of roles and requiring massive reskilling efforts.

When building an AI-enabled service for a mature market like accounting, customer demand is a given. The core business risk shifts entirely from sales and marketing to engineering. The key question becomes: can you automate enough of the manual service delivery to achieve venture-scale gross margins?

The Goldman Sachs CEO differentiates between two types of AI adoption. Giving employees AI tools to make them more productive is relatively easy. The much harder, yet more impactful, challenge is fundamentally re-engineering long-standing, complex processes like customer onboarding from the ground up.

As AI commoditizes software, the most defensible businesses are no longer asset-light SaaS models. Instead, companies with physical world operations, regulatory moats, and liability are safer investments. Their operational complexity, once a weakness, now serves as a formidable barrier against pure AI-driven disruption.

The most durable moat for enterprise software is established user workflows. The current AI platform shift is powerful because it actively drives new behaviors, creating a rare opportunity to displace incumbents. The core disruption isn't just the tech, but its ability to change how people work.

AI poses a greater existential threat to Adobe than to a company like Intuit. While AI can augment accounting (Intuit's domain), it is creating entirely new workflows for content creation (Adobe's domain). When the fundamental "job to be done" changes, the incumbent software provider is at a much higher risk of being displaced.

When evaluating software loans, Blackstone moves beyond financials to product underwriting. Its investment committee uses a specific scorecard to assess a company's risk of AI disruption, how embedded its product is in workflows, and how its technology stacks up, demonstrating a structured approach to modern threats.