Palmer Luckey argues the global push for electric vehicles is a massive, potentially misguided bet. He points to the viability of creating cheap, synthetic hydrocarbon fuels which, if successful, would render current EV infrastructure investments a waste of time and money, especially for aviation.
The goal for a majority-EV fleet is not viable with current technology. The material requirements for batteries and components are so vast that a US-only transition would consume every scrap of lithium, copper, graphite, and other key minerals produced globally, leaving none for any other country or industry.
China's dominance in clean energy technology presents a deep paradox: it is funded by fossil fuels. Manufacturing solar panels, batteries, and EVs is incredibly energy-intensive. To meet this demand, China is increasing its coal imports and consumption, simultaneously positioning itself as a climate 'saint' for its green exports and a 'sinner' for its production methods.
After a decade of abundant "growth capex" building new infrastructure, the economic pendulum is swinging towards "maintenance capex." This creates a massive, overlooked opportunity for technologies that service existing assets, like predictive software, acoustic sensors, and remote repair robots.
Beta Technologies isn't just selling electric airplanes; it's building a network of proprietary "charge cubes" at airports. This strategy, reminiscent of Tesla's Superchargers, creates a competitive moat and ensures viability for its own aircraft. It also establishes a new revenue stream, making money even if a competitor sells the plane.
By coining the term 'low altitude economy,' China is signaling a deliberate, top-down industrial strategy to own the market for autonomous flying vehicles (EVTOLs) and delivery drones. This isn't just about a single company; it's about creating and regulating a new economic sector to establish a global manufacturing and operational lead.
History shows that transformative innovations like airlines, vaccines, and PCs, while beneficial to society, often fail to create sustained, concentrated shareholder value as they become commoditized. This suggests the massive valuations in AI may be misplaced, with the technology's benefits accruing more to users than investors in the long run.
Elysian Aircraft's strategy targets regions like the U.S. and Nordic countries where building high-speed rail is infeasible. By leveraging hundreds of existing, underutilized airports, they can create new, efficient short-haul routes, representing a path of least resistance for new transport infrastructure.
Innovation doesn't happen without risk-taking. What we call speculation is the essential fuel that allows groundbreaking ideas, like those of Elon Musk, to get funded and developed. While dangerous, attempting to eliminate speculative bubbles entirely would also stifle world-changing progress.
Simply replacing jet engines with electric motors on current aircraft designs is ineffective. The extreme weight of batteries demands a complete redesign from the ground up, optimizing the entire airframe to accommodate a fundamentally different and heavier energy source.
Beyond environmental benefits, climate tech is crucial for national economic survival. Failing to innovate in green energy cedes economic dominance to countries like China. This positions climate investment as a matter of long-term financial and geopolitical future-proofing for the U.S. and Europe.