The rise of populism is better understood as a resurgence of humanity's innate "groupish" and tribal instincts. This regression is amplified by a modern cocktail of social media, rapid migration, and weakening political institutions, making it a deeper cultural and psychological phenomenon than just an economic one.
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The global rise of right-wing populism cannot be solely attributed to economic factors like inequality or job loss. Its prevalence in wealthy, low-inequality nations like Sweden and strong manufacturing countries like Germany proves the root cause is a deeper, more widespread cultural anxiety.
The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.
Societal hatred and tribalism are lagging indicators of economic distress. By the time political polarization becomes extreme, the underlying system is already in crisis due to factors like excessive debt and money printing. The economy is the root cause to watch.
Left-leaning parties are losing worldwide because they offer economic solutions (e.g., more government programs) to what is fundamentally a cultural problem. Voters feeling existential anxiety from globalization and social change are drawn to the right's message of nostalgia and tradition, not the left's policy proposals.
When society organizes itself along tribal or identity lines, it is a mathematical certainty that all groups, including the majority, will eventually adopt that framework. The only solution to one form of identity politics is to eliminate all forms of it.
The root cause of many social conflicts is not just ideology but deep-seated economic anxiety. When people struggle to pay bills, that stress turns into anger, which is easily manipulated into tribalism and fighting over a perceived "shrinking pie."
Focusing on which political side is "crazier" misses the point. The fundamental danger is the psychological process of tribalism itself. It simplifies complex issues into "us vs. them," impairs rational thought, and inevitably leads to extremism on all sides.
In times of economic inequality, people are psychologically driven to vote for policies that punish a perceived enemy—like the wealthy or immigrants—rather than those that directly aid the poor. This powerful emotional desire for anger and a villain fuels populist leaders.
The common belief that rising inequality fuels right-wing populism is empirically weak, argues LSE Dean Andres Velasco. Populism has surged in egalitarian countries like Sweden and Germany, and in places like Chile where inequality was falling, suggesting other cultural and political factors are more significant drivers.
The psychological engine of populism is the zero-sum fallacy. It frames every issue—trade deficits, immigration, university admissions—as a win-lose scenario. This narrative, where one group's success must come at another's expense, fosters the protectionist and resentful attitudes that populist leaders exploit.
