Societal hatred and tribalism are lagging indicators of economic distress. By the time political polarization becomes extreme, the underlying system is already in crisis due to factors like excessive debt and money printing. The economy is the root cause to watch.
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Political violence and extreme polarization are symptoms of deeper economic anxieties. When people feel economically insecure, they retreat into tribal identities and become susceptible to narratives of anger, which can escalate into violence.
Social and political chaos are symptoms of a foundational economic decay. When the work-to-reward feedback loop breaks—evidenced by housing becoming unaffordable—people lose faith in the system itself and become open to radical alternatives because they feel they have nothing left to lose.
The historic gap between Republican and Democratic pride in America reflects a "K-shaped" economy. A soaring stock market benefits a concentrated few, exacerbating wealth inequality and breaking the social contract. This disconnect between headline market performance and the economic reality for most citizens fuels political division.
The inability for young people to afford assets like housing creates massive inequality and fear. This economic desperation makes them susceptible to populist leaders who redirect their anger towards political opponents, ultimately sparking violence.
Historically, countries crossing a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience revolution or collapse. As the U.S. approaches this threshold (currently 122%), its massive debt forces zero-sum political fights over a shrinking pie, directly fueling the social unrest and polarization seen today.
Figures like Donald Trump don't create populist movements; they rise by capitalizing on pre-existing societal problems like economic despair. Focusing on removing the leader ignores the root causes that allowed them to gain power, ensuring another similar figure will eventually emerge.
The public sentiment towards minority groups, particularly historical scapegoats, can function as a canary in the coal mine for a nation's economic health. When fear and economic anxiety rise, society seeks a focus for its anger, making the "temperature on the Jews" a critical, if grim, socio-economic indicator.
The root of rising civil unrest and anti-immigrant sentiment is often economic insecurity, not just a clash of cultures. People convert financial anxiety into anger, which is then easily directed at visible, culturally different groups, creating flashpoints that can escalate into violence.
As governments print money, asset values rise while wages stagnate, dramatically increasing wealth inequality. This economic divergence is the primary source of the bitterness, anxiety, and societal infighting that manifests as extreme political polarization. The problem is economic at its core.
Political violence and societal decay are not random events but predictable outcomes of economic desperation. By analyzing quantifiable data like debt-to-GDP ratios on a spreadsheet, one can forecast these outcomes with high accuracy. Because the problem is knowable and data-driven, it is also avoidable.
