A core debate in AI is whether LLMs, which are text prediction engines, can achieve true intelligence. Critics argue they cannot because they lack a model of the real world. This prevents them from making meaningful, context-aware predictions about future events—a limitation that more data alone may not solve.

The future of AI is hard to predict because increasing a model's scale often produces 'emergent properties'—new capabilities that were not designed or anticipated. This means even experts are often surprised by what new, larger models can do, making the development path non-linear.

AI development is more like farming than engineering. Companies create conditions for models to learn but don't directly code their behaviors. This leads to a lack of deep understanding and results in emergent, unpredictable actions that were never explicitly programmed.

The promise of "techno-solutionism" falls flat when AI is applied to complex social issues. An AI project in Argentina meant to predict teen pregnancy simply confirmed that poverty was the root cause—a conclusion that didn't require invasive data collection and that technology alone could not fix, exposing the limits of algorithmic intervention.

With past shifts like the internet or mobile, we understood the physical constraints (e.g., modem speeds, battery life). With generative AI, we lack a theoretical understanding of its scaling potential, making it impossible to forecast its ultimate capabilities beyond "vibes-based" guesses from experts.

As AI models become more powerful, they pose a dual challenge for human-centered design. On one hand, bigger models can cause bigger, more complex problems. On the other, their improved ability to understand natural language makes them easier and faster to steer. The key is to develop guardrails at the same pace as the model's power.

As AI makes the future radically unpredictable, the traditional human calculus for decision-making will change. Instead of optimizing for probable outcomes based on risk, people will shift to minimizing potential regret, a fundamentally different psychological framework for navigating an uncertain world.

Future literacy requires understanding concepts beyond deterministic algorithms. As AI tools become more prevalent, users will need to grasp probabilistic and stochastic systems to effectively build with and manage them, recognizing that outputs are not always perfectly reproducible.

The true, lasting impact of AI is not just in automating tasks but in fundamentally changing how humans perceive and interact with the future. By making outcomes more predictable, AI alters our core frameworks for decision-making and risk assessment, a profound societal shift that is currently under-recognized.