The 1990s belief that economic liberalization would inevitably make China democratic provided ideological cover for policies that fueled its growth. This hubris, combined with corporate greed, allowed the US to facilitate the rise of its greatest geopolitical rival without achieving the expected political reforms.

The US won World War II largely due to its unparalleled manufacturing capacity. Today, that strategic advantage has been ceded to China. In a potential conflict, the US would face an adversary that mirrors its own historical strength, creating a critical national security vulnerability.

American military engagements abroad are a strategic boon for China. Each conflict distracts US resources and attention, effectively granting China a "free decade" of peace to continue its rapid economic and technological ascent without direct confrontation from its primary rival.

China plays the long game. Instead of direct confrontation, its strategy is to wait for the U.S. to weaken itself through expensive military interventions and political division. This allows China to gain relative power without firing a shot, similar to its rise during the War on Terror.

The US-Iran war provides China a three-fold opportunity: watch the US lose global public opinion, build an alliance with Iran and Russia by providing covert support, and create a precedent for its own potential aggressive actions against Taiwan.

China is waging economic, not military, war. By creating its own self-sufficient tech ecosystem and offering cheaper alternatives globally, it aims to break the world's reliance on the American tech monopoly and peel away its economic allies.

China's relative power grew immensely while the US was engaged in Middle Eastern wars for over two decades. From China's perspective, another protracted US conflict is advantageous, as it consumes American resources and focus, allowing China to strengthen its own position globally.

A protracted U.S. conflict in the Middle East is a strategic gift to China. It diverts American military resources, political attention, and economic strength, allowing China to expand its influence, particularly in Asia, without direct confrontation.

From 2001 onwards, while the U.S. was militarily and economically distracted by the War on Terror, China executed a long-term strategy. It focused on acquiring Western technology and building indigenous capabilities in AI, telecom, and robotics, effectively creating a rival global economic system.