China's showcase of advanced military hardware, like its new aircraft carrier, is primarily a psychological tool. The strategy is to build a military so 'forbiddingly huge' that the US would hesitate to engage, allowing China to achieve goals like reabsorbing Taiwan without fighting. This suggests their focus is on perceived power to deter intervention.

The Pentagon is moving significant military assets, including warships, out of the Indo-Pacific to reinforce its position in the Middle East. This diversion of American attention and resources could present China with an opportunity to advance its long-standing interests in regions like Taiwan.

China intentionally avoids costly political and military entanglements, even where it has significant energy interests. It allows rivals like the US to bear the costs of conflict, then pragmatically engages with whomever is in power for post-conflict reconstruction and economic opportunities, a "ruthlessly pragmatic" approach.

While the U.S. talks about pushing back against China, its military position in East Asia has declined relative to China's rapid buildup. Unlike during the Cold War, U.S. leaders haven't committed the necessary resources or explained the stakes to the American public.

Beijing interprets America's focus on regions like Latin America or the Middle East with a 'shoulder shrug.' They see these distractions as beneficial, giving them more freedom to aggressively pursue their own interests and push allies in the Indo-Pacific without US interference.

China plays the long game. Instead of direct confrontation, its strategy is to wait for the U.S. to weaken itself through expensive military interventions and political division. This allows China to gain relative power without firing a shot, similar to its rise during the War on Terror.

A protracted U.S. conflict in the Middle East is a strategic gift to China. It diverts American military resources, political attention, and economic strength, allowing China to expand its influence, particularly in Asia, without direct confrontation.

The Iran conflict serves the strategic interests of China and Russia by distracting US attention and draining its military resources. It consumes critical assets (like Patriot missiles needed for Ukraine) and diverts political focus from containing America's primary geopolitical rivals in Europe and Asia.

From 2001 onwards, while the U.S. was militarily and economically distracted by the War on Terror, China executed a long-term strategy. It focused on acquiring Western technology and building indigenous capabilities in AI, telecom, and robotics, effectively creating a rival global economic system.