Today's dominant AI tools like ChatGPT are perceived as productivity aids, akin to "homework helpers." The next multi-billion dollar opportunity is in creating the go-to AI for fun, creativity, and entertainment—the app people use when they're not working. This untapped market focuses on user expression and play.
AI reverses the long-standing trend of professional hyper-specialization. By providing instant access to specialist knowledge (e.g., coding in an unfamiliar language), AI tools empower individuals to operate as effective generalists. This allows small, agile teams to achieve more without hiring a dedicated expert for every function.
Traditional video models process an entire clip at once, causing delays. Descartes' Mirage model is autoregressive, predicting only the next frame based on the input stream and previously generated frames. This LLM-like approach is what enables its real-time, low-latency performance.
AI's strength lies in solving "differentiable" problems where being "close enough" is acceptable, like generating an image. Classical code is better for non-differentiable tasks requiring exact precision, like arithmetic or hashing. This framework helps architects decide where to deploy AI versus traditional algorithms.
Unlike traditional engineering, breakthroughs in foundational AI research often feel binary. A model can be completely broken until a handful of key insights are discovered, at which point it suddenly works. This "all or nothing" dynamic makes it impossible to predict timelines, as you don't know if a solution is a week or two years away.
The path to a general-purpose AI model is not to tackle the entire problem at once. A more effective strategy is to start with a highly constrained domain, like generating only Minecraft videos. Once the model works reliably in that narrow distribution, incrementally expand the training data and complexity, using each step as a foundation for the next.
The most immediate AI milestone is not singularity, but "Economic AGI," where AI can perform most virtual knowledge work better than humans. This threshold, predicted to arrive within 12-18 months, will trigger massive societal and economic shifts long before a "Terminator"-style superintelligence becomes a reality.
Instead of replacing entire systems with AI "world models," a superior approach is a hybrid model. Classical code should handle deterministic logic (like game physics), while AI provides a "differentiable" emergent layer for aesthetics and creativity (like real-time texturing). This leverages the unique strengths of both computational paradigms.
The primary challenge in creating stable, real-time autoregressive video is error accumulation. Like early LLMs getting stuck in loops, video models degrade frame-by-frame until the output is useless. Overcoming this compounding error, not just processing speed, is the core research breakthrough required for long-form generation.