While more data and compute yield linear improvements, true step-function advances in AI come from unpredictable algorithmic breakthroughs like Transformers. These creative ideas are the most difficult to innovate on and represent the highest-leverage, yet riskiest, area for investment and research focus.

With industry dominating large-scale compute, academia's function is no longer to train the biggest models. Instead, its value lies in pursuing unconventional, high-risk research in areas like new algorithms, architectures, and theoretical underpinnings that commercial labs, focused on scaling, might overlook.

The era of advancing AI simply by scaling pre-training is ending due to data limits. The field is re-entering a research-heavy phase focused on novel, more efficient training paradigms beyond just adding more compute to existing recipes. The bottleneck is shifting from resources back to ideas.

A "software-only singularity," where AI recursively improves itself, is unlikely. Progress is fundamentally tied to large-scale, costly physical experiments (i.e., compute). The massive spending on experimental compute over pure researcher salaries indicates that physical experimentation, not just algorithms, remains the primary driver of breakthroughs.

The history of AI, such as the 2012 AlexNet breakthrough, demonstrates that scaling compute and data on simpler, older algorithms often yields greater advances than designing intricate new ones. This "bitter lesson" suggests prioritizing scalability over algorithmic complexity for future progress.

AI progress was expected to stall in 2024-2025 due to hardware limitations on pre-training scaling laws. However, breakthroughs in post-training techniques like reasoning and test-time compute provided a new vector for improvement, bridging the gap until next-generation chips like NVIDIA's Blackwell arrived.

The Browser Company's Dia browser was built with the conviction that AI models would rapidly improve. Core features like "memory" were impossible, killed, and then revived just before launch when a new model suddenly unlocked the capability, validating their forward-looking bet on the technology's trajectory.

The most fundamental challenge in AI today is not scale or architecture, but the fact that models generalize dramatically worse than humans. Solving this sample efficiency and robustness problem is the true key to unlocking the next level of AI capabilities and real-world impact.

The mantra 'ideas are cheap' fails in the current AI paradigm. With 'scaling' as the dominant execution strategy, the industry has more companies than novel ideas. This makes truly new concepts, not just execution, the scarcest resource and the primary bottleneck for breakthrough progress.