Historically, countries crossing a 130% debt-to-GDP ratio experience revolution or collapse. As the U.S. approaches this threshold (currently 122%), its massive debt forces zero-sum political fights over a shrinking pie, directly fueling the social unrest and polarization seen today.

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Republicans and Democrats contribute equally to the nation's fiscal crisis via different tactics. Republicans gut the IRS and cut taxes while Democrats expand spending. Both actions are popular with their respective bases and donors but push the country closer to bankruptcy.

When national debt grows too large, an economy enters "fiscal dominance." The central bank loses its ability to manage the economy, as raising rates causes hyperinflation to cover debt payments while lowering them creates massive asset bubbles, leaving no good options.

To fund deficits, the government prints money, causing inflation that devalues cash and wages. This acts as a hidden tax on the poor and middle class. Meanwhile, the wealthy, who own assets like stocks and real estate that appreciate with inflation, are protected and see their wealth grow, widening the economic divide.

The US faces a stark choice driven by its fiscal reality. It can either reindustrialize around the military-industrial complex, selling weapons to profit from global conflicts, or continue sending aid abroad, accelerating its path to bankruptcy and the collapse of domestic social programs.

The gutting of the IRS is not an ideological choice but a symptom of a fiscal crisis. With unmanageable debt, politicians cannibalize institutions for short-term electoral gain, as traditional tax enforcement can no longer solve the core problem.

The underlying math of U.S. debt is unsustainable, but the system holds together on pure confidence. The final collapse won't be a slow leak but a sudden 'pop'—an overnight freeze when investors collectively stop believing the government can honor its debts, a point which cannot be timed.

As governments print money, asset values rise while wages stagnate, dramatically increasing wealth inequality. This economic divergence is the primary source of the bitterness, anxiety, and societal infighting that manifests as extreme political polarization. The problem is economic at its core.

Political alignment is becoming secondary to economic frustration. Voters are responding to candidates who address rising costs, creating unpredictable alliances and fracturing established bases. This dynamic is swamping traditional ideology, forcing both parties to scramble for a new populist message centered on financial well-being.

The U.S. government's debt is so large that the Federal Reserve is trapped. Raising interest rates would trigger a government default, while cutting them would further inflate the 'everything bubble.' Either path leads to a systemic crisis, a situation economists call 'fiscal dominance.'

The U.S. economy's only viable solution to its long-term debt and inflation is a "beautiful deleveraging"—a painful but controlled economic downturn. The alternative is delaying and being pushed off the cliff by market forces, resulting in a much more severe and uncontrolled crash.

The U.S. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Is Fueling Political Polarization and Pushing the Nation Toward Civil Unrest | RiffOn